Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-14
Matched 334 events (CS2 17, ETH low 2026 1, NFL MVP 1, GOP 2028 1, Israel PM 1, BTC low 2026 1, Heisman 1, France 2027 1, MLB 40, CFB 119, NBA title 1, Fed 3, UCL 1, BTC high 2026 1, Stanley Cup 1, LoL 11, Ballon d'Or 1, World Series 1, Dem 2028 1, NFL 17, Premier League 11, La Liga 18, WTA 21, UFC 15, ETH high 2026 1, WNBA title 1, NFL futures 1, Ligue 1 7, Bundesliga 9, MLS 29), $27.3M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-14T13:01:00.744Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Panthers (Panthers vs. Falcons, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 52¢ vs Polymarket 54¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- Arsenal FC (Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC, Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi 59¢ vs Polymarket 56¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Ole Miss (LSU vs. Ole Miss, Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi 42¢ vs Polymarket 40¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Louisville (SMU vs. Louisville, Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi 54¢ vs Polymarket 52¢, Kalshi 1.5 pts higher
- Patriots (Steelers vs. Patriots, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 69¢ vs Polymarket 70¢, Polymarket 1.5 pts higher
- Vikings (Vikings vs. Bears, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 32¢ vs Polymarket 31¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Chargers (Raiders vs. Chargers, Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi 74¢ vs Polymarket 75¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Cincinnati Reds (Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds, Mon, Sep 14, 6:40 PM ET): Kalshi 34¢ vs Polymarket 33¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Chicago Cubs (Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs, Mon, Sep 14, 7:40 PM ET): Kalshi 56¢ vs Polymarket 55¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Houston (Houston vs. Texas Tech, Fri, Sep 18, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi 27¢ vs Polymarket 26¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 20¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Kalshi 7.2 pts higher
- Caleb Williams for NFL MVP: Kalshi 12¢ vs Polymarket 17¢, Polymarket 5.9 pts higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 51¢, Polymarket 5.7 pts higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 12¢ vs Polymarket 7¢, Kalshi 5.5 pts higher
- Itamar Ben Gvir for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi 6¢ vs Polymarket 1¢, Kalshi 5.1 pts higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 25¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Kalshi 5.0 pts higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi 39¢ vs Polymarket 35¢, Kalshi 4.4 pts higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi 8¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Polymarket 4.0 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 939 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 325 times (35%) and on Polymarket 267 times (28%), 347 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.19, Polymarket 0.1904 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 234 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 133 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 11%
- CS2: 323 games, Kalshi closer 43%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 70 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 11 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 18%
- LALIGA: 13 games, Kalshi closer 46%, Polymarket closer 8%
- BUNDESLIGA: 11 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 0%
- LIGUE1: 10 games, Kalshi closer 40%, Polymarket closer 10%
- ATP: 15 games, Kalshi closer 47%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WTA: 42 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 26%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 16 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 19%
- NFL: 15 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 0%
- MLS: 29 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 3%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 5¢ | -1.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 15¢ | 14¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 59¢ | 57¢ | +1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 20¢ | 23¢ | -3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 6¢ | 2¢ | +3.9 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 0¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 4¢ | 2¢ | +1.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 61¢ | 63¢ | -2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 38¢ | 37¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.6 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 4¢ | 3¢ | +0.6 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 42¢ | 40¢ | +2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 56¢ | 57¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 2¢ | +0.5 pp |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-13)
Views 13 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 1 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket