Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-13
Matched 357 events (CS2 26, BTC low 2026 1, ETH low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, Heisman 1, CFB 119, Israel PM 1, France 2027 1, MLB 40, UCL 1, Fed 3, NBA title 1, LoL 16, La Liga 22, NFL 30, UFC 15, BTC high 2026 1, NFL futures 1, WNBA title 1, NFL MVP 1, Dem 2028 1, ETH high 2026 1, Stanley Cup 1, Ballon d'Or 1, Premier League 13, Bundesliga 11, MLS 18, WTA 16, World Series 1, Ligue 1 10, ATP 1), $32.1M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-13T13:02:08.019Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Metizport (Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Metizport (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #8 Playoffs, Sun, Sep 13, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi 47¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Polymarket 3.0 pts higher
- Real Madrid CF (Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF, Tue, Sep 15, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi 78¢ vs Polymarket 76¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- RB Leipzig (RB Leipzig vs. Hamburger SV, Sun, Sep 13, 9:30 AM ET): Kalshi 72¢ vs Polymarket 70¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Mississippi State (Mississippi State vs. South Carolina, Sat, Sep 19, 4:15 PM ET): Kalshi 36¢ vs Polymarket 34¢, Kalshi 1.5 pts higher
- Akbar Abdullaev (Dana White's Contender Series: Ednilson Santos vs. Akbar Abdullaev (Lightweight, Main Card), Tue, Sep 15, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi 93¢ vs Polymarket 91¢, Kalshi 1.5 pts higher
- Bears (Bears vs. Panthers, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 60¢ vs Polymarket 61¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Jaguars (Browns vs. Jaguars, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 79¢ vs Polymarket 80¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Bengals (Buccaneers vs. Bengals, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 64¢ vs Polymarket 65¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Cardinals (Cardinals vs. Chargers, Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi 19¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Vikings (Packers vs. Vikings, Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi 55¢ vs Polymarket 56¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 26¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Kalshi 6.0 pts higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 19¢ vs Polymarket 13¢, Kalshi 5.8 pts higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 51¢, Polymarket 5.5 pts higher
- Gunner Stockton for the Heisman: Kalshi 5¢ vs Polymarket 10¢, Polymarket 5.5 pts higher
- Itamar Ben Gvir for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi 6¢ vs Polymarket 1¢, Kalshi 4.8 pts higher
- Sam Leavitt for the Heisman: Kalshi 3¢ vs Polymarket 7¢, Polymarket 4.7 pts higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi 39¢ vs Polymarket 34¢, Kalshi 4.6 pts higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi 23¢ vs Polymarket 19¢, Kalshi 4.5 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 844 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 290 times (34%) and on Polymarket 250 times (30%), 304 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1868, Polymarket 0.1869 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 234 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 118 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 11%
- CS2: 294 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 42%
- LOL: 60 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 42%
- EPL: 9 games, Kalshi closer 11%, Polymarket closer 22%
- LALIGA: 9 games, Kalshi closer 56%, Polymarket closer 0%
- BUNDESLIGA: 9 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 0%
- LIGUE1: 7 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 14%
- ATP: 14 games, Kalshi closer 50%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WTA: 29 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 34%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 16 games, Kalshi closer 44%, Polymarket closer 19%
- MLS: 26 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 4%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 4¢ | -0.8 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 15¢ | 14¢ | +1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 58¢ | 58¢ | 0.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 21¢ | 23¢ | -2.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 6¢ | 2¢ | +4.4 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 1¢ | +0.2 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 3¢ | 3¢ | -0.9 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 43¢ | 40¢ | +3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 55¢ | 56¢ | -0.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 4¢ | -1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 1¢ | -0.2 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 3¢ | 3¢ | -0.6 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 61¢ | 62¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 38¢ | 37¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.6 pp |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-12)
Views 10 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket