Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-12
Matched 532 events (WTA 17, LoL 22, ETH low 2026 1, CS2 38, GOP 2028 1, Israel PM 1, BTC low 2026 1, Heisman 1, France 2027 1, Fed 3, CFB 233, BTC high 2026 1, NBA title 1, Ballon d'Or 1, MLB 40, La Liga 25, NFL MVP 1, World Series 1, UCL 1, ETH high 2026 1, Dem 2028 1, Ligue 1 13, MLS 30, UFC 26, Stanley Cup 1, WNBA title 1, NFL 30, Premier League 20, Bundesliga 17, NFL futures 1, ATP 1), $32.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-12T13:01:58.898Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- FURIA Esports (LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs, Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi 24¢ vs Polymarket 28¢, Polymarket 4.0 pts higher
- Atlanta Braves (Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves, Sat, Sep 12, 7:15 PM ET): Kalshi 55¢ vs Polymarket 53¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Nashville SC (Inter Miami CF vs. Nashville SC, Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi 32¢ vs Polymarket 30¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Sean King (Noche UFC: Jessie Rosas vs. Sean King (Featherweight, Prelims), Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi 67¢ vs Polymarket 65¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Luminosity (Counter-Strike: SAW vs Luminosity (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs, Sat, Sep 12, 9:30 AM ET): Kalshi 68¢ vs Polymarket 66¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- AS Monaco FC (RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC, Sat, Sep 12, 11:15 AM ET): Kalshi 47¢ vs Polymarket 45¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Steelers (Falcons vs. Steelers, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 71¢ vs Polymarket 72¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Bills (Bills vs. Texans, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 52¢ vs Polymarket 53¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Bears (Bears vs. Panthers, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 60¢ vs Polymarket 61¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Bengals (Buccaneers vs. Bengals, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 64¢ vs Polymarket 65¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Sao Paulo Open, Qualification: Alana Smith vs Anastasia Tikhonova: +6.75¢ per $1. Buy Alana Smith @ Kalshi 39¢, Anastasia Tikhonova @ Polymarket 51¢. Fees 3.25¢.
- Guadalajara Open Akron, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Nicole Melichar: +1.20¢ per $1. Buy Varvara Lepchenko @ Polymarket 80¢, Nicole Melichar @ Kalshi 17¢. Fees 1.80¢.
- LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs: +0.01¢ per $1. Buy FURIA Esports @ Kalshi 24¢, LOS @ Polymarket 73¢. Fees 2.99¢.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 20¢ vs Polymarket 13¢, Kalshi 6.4 pts higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 51¢, Polymarket 5.1 pts higher
- Itamar Ben Gvir for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi 6¢ vs Polymarket 1¢, Kalshi 5.1 pts higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 25¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Kalshi 5.0 pts higher
- Dip to $50,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 18¢ vs Polymarket 13¢, Kalshi 4.5 pts higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi 39¢ vs Polymarket 35¢, Kalshi 4.4 pts higher
- Dip to $45,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 13¢ vs Polymarket 9¢, Kalshi 4.0 pts higher
- Reach $110,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi 17¢ vs Polymarket 13¢, Kalshi 4.0 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 616 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 204 times (33%) and on Polymarket 191 times (31%), 221 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1874, Polymarket 0.1871 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 120 games, Kalshi closer 39%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 103 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 11%
- CS2: 260 games, Kalshi closer 40%, Polymarket closer 43%
- LOL: 52 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 44%
- LALIGA: 6 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 0%
- ATP: 14 games, Kalshi closer 50%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WTA: 14 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 29%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 5 games, Kalshi closer 20%, Polymarket closer 60%
- MLS: 14 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 7%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 4¢ | -0.9 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 15¢ | 14¢ | +1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 58¢ | 60¢ | -1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 21¢ | 23¢ | -2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 6¢ | 2¢ | +4.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 1¢ | +0.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 3¢ | 3¢ | +0.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 43¢ | 40¢ | +3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 56¢ | 56¢ | +0.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 2¢ | +0.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 1¢ | -0.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 3¢ | 2¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 62¢ | 62¢ | 0.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 38¢ | 38¢ | 0.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.5 pp |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-11)
Views 4 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 1 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket