Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-11
Matched 539 events (CS2 48, ETH low 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, Heisman 1, GOP 2028 1, Israel PM 1, France 2027 1, Fed 3, UCL 1, NFL MVP 1, Dem 2028 1, CFB 238, Ballon d'Or 1, NBA title 1, ETH high 2026 1, La Liga 25, LoL 22, NFL 30, MLB 45, Ligue 1 14, UFC 26, Stanley Cup 1, MLS 30, WTA 1, WNBA title 1, NFL futures 1, World Series 1, BTC high 2026 1, Premier League 20, Bundesliga 18, ATP 2), $25.0M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-11T13:01:02.014Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Tommy McMillen (Noche UFC: Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki (Featherweight, Main Card), Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi 61¢ vs Polymarket 59¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Brandon Moreno (Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales (Flyweight, Main Card), Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi 47¢ vs Polymarket 49¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- Aryna Sabalenka (US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina, Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi 57¢ vs Polymarket 56¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Fluxo W7M (Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs Back to Back (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffs, Fri, Sep 11, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi 61¢ vs Polymarket 60¢, Kalshi 1.5 pts higher
- Steelers (Falcons vs. Steelers, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 68¢ vs Polymarket 69¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Texans (Bills vs. Texans, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 49¢ vs Polymarket 48¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Bears (Bears vs. Panthers, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 60¢ vs Polymarket 61¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Jets (Jets vs. Titans, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 48¢ vs Polymarket 49¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Bengals (Buccaneers vs. Bengals, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 64¢ vs Polymarket 65¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Cardinals (Cardinals vs. Chargers, Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi 19¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 16¢ vs Polymarket 8¢, Kalshi 8.0 pts higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 21¢ vs Polymarket 14¢, Kalshi 7.5 pts higher
- Dip to $45,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 15¢ vs Polymarket 9¢, Kalshi 6.0 pts higher
- Gunner Stockton for the Heisman: Kalshi 2¢ vs Polymarket 7¢, Polymarket 6.0 pts higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Polymarket 4.7 pts higher
- Itamar Ben Gvir for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi 6¢ vs Polymarket 1¢, Kalshi 4.7 pts higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 27¢ vs Polymarket 22¢, Kalshi 4.5 pts higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi 39¢ vs Polymarket 34¢, Kalshi 4.1 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 545 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 180 times (33%) and on Polymarket 167 times (31%), 198 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1845, Polymarket 0.1845 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 115 games, Kalshi closer 37%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 88 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 11%
- CS2: 220 games, Kalshi closer 40%, Polymarket closer 42%
- LOL: 45 games, Kalshi closer 20%, Polymarket closer 47%
- LALIGA: 6 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 0%
- ATP: 12 games, Kalshi closer 58%, Polymarket closer 8%
- WTA: 14 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 29%
- UCLGAME: 17 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 5 games, Kalshi closer 20%, Polymarket closer 60%
- MLS: 14 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 7%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 1¢ | -0.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 5¢ | 4¢ | +0.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 39¢ | 35¢ | +4.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 57¢ | 61¢ | -3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 3¢ | 0.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 4¢ | -0.8 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 11¢ | 13¢ | -2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 58¢ | 60¢ | -1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 21¢ | 23¢ | -1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 6¢ | 2¢ | +3.9 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 0¢ | +1.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 3¢ | 2¢ | +0.9 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 68¢ | 65¢ | +3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 31¢ | 33¢ | -2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.7 pp |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-10)
Views 6 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 1 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket