Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-10
Matched 576 events (ETH low 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, Heisman 1, La Liga 25, UCL 1, GOP 2028 1, Israel PM 1, MLB 36, Fed 3, CS2 82, NFL MVP 1, UFC 21, CFB 239, Dem 2028 1, NBA title 1, BTC high 2026 1, France 2027 1, Premier League 20, MLS 34, LoL 28, World Series 1, ETH high 2026 1, Ballon d'Or 1, Ligue 1 14, Stanley Cup 1, WNBA title 1, NFL 31, NFL futures 1, Bundesliga 18, UCL games 5, WTA 2, ATP 1), $30.3M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-10T04:26:23.987Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Joseph Morales (Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales (Flyweight, Main Card), Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi 55¢ vs Polymarket 52¢, Kalshi 3.0 pts higher
- Philadelphia Phillies (Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies, Thu, Sep 10, 1:05 PM ET): Kalshi 64¢ vs Polymarket 62¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- FC Barcelona (Levante UD vs. FC Barcelona, Sun, Sep 13, 10:15 AM ET): Kalshi 84¢ vs Polymarket 86¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- magic (Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs magic (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B, Thu, Sep 10, 2:00 AM ET): Kalshi 43¢ vs Polymarket 45¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- Steelers (Falcons vs. Steelers, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 63¢ vs Polymarket 64¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Ravens (Ravens vs. Colts, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 61¢ vs Polymarket 62¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Bears (Bears vs. Panthers, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 60¢ vs Polymarket 61¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Jets (Jets vs. Titans, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 48¢ vs Polymarket 49¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Cardinals (Cardinals vs. Chargers, Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi 19¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Raiders (Dolphins vs. Raiders, Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi 60¢ vs Polymarket 61¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 21¢ vs Polymarket 13¢, Kalshi 8.4 pts higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 27¢ vs Polymarket 19¢, Kalshi 8.0 pts higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi 24¢ vs Polymarket 19¢, Kalshi 5.0 pts higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Polymarket 4.7 pts higher
- Itamar Ben Gvir for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi 6¢ vs Polymarket 1¢, Kalshi 4.6 pts higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 13¢ vs Polymarket 8¢, Kalshi 4.5 pts higher
- Malachi Toney for the Heisman: Kalshi 6¢ vs Polymarket 10¢, Polymarket 4.0 pts higher
- Dak Prescott for NFL MVP: Kalshi 7¢ vs Polymarket 10¢, Polymarket 3.6 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 352 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 113 times (32%) and on Polymarket 106 times (30%), 133 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1591, Polymarket 0.1592 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.6 pp.
- CFB: 114 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 68 games, Kalshi closer 19%, Polymarket closer 15%
- CS2: 96 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 47%
- LOL: 30 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 40%
- LALIGA: 6 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 0%
- ATP: 10 games, Kalshi closer 70%, Polymarket closer 10%
- WTA: 10 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 20%
- UCLGAME: 6 games, Kalshi closer 67%, Polymarket closer 0%
- UFC: 5 games, Kalshi closer 20%, Polymarket closer 60%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 3¢ | +0.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 13¢ | 14¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 56¢ | 61¢ | -4.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 24¢ | 24¢ | +0.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 6¢ | 2¢ | +3.8 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 0¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 4¢ | 4¢ | +0.4 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 69¢ | 68¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 28¢ | 31¢ | -3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.6 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 5¢ | 6¢ | -2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 47¢ | 48¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 42¢ | 44¢ | -2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 3¢ | 0.0 pp |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-09)
Views 12 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 1 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com