Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-10
Matched 563 events (CS2 74, ETH low 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, Heisman 1, Israel PM 1, Fed 3, Dem 2028 1, BTC high 2026 1, UFC 21, MLB 35, UCL 1, NBA title 1, NFL MVP 1, CFB 239, France 2027 1, World Series 1, LoL 27, Ballon d'Or 1, Premier League 20, WTA 2, Stanley Cup 1, ETH high 2026 1, WNBA title 1, NFL 31, La Liga 25, Ligue 1 14, NFL futures 1, Bundesliga 18, MLS 30, UCL games 5, ATP 2), $25.1M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-10T12:59:59.426Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Imperial (Counter-Strike: paiN vs Imperial (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffs, Thu, Sep 10, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi 57¢ vs Polymarket 62¢, Polymarket 4.0 pts higher
- Nemiga (Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs, Thu, Sep 10, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 53¢ vs Polymarket 56¢, Polymarket 4.0 pts higher
- Joseph Morales (Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales (Flyweight, Main Card), Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi 55¢ vs Polymarket 52¢, Kalshi 3.0 pts higher
- Coco Gauff (US Open WTA: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina, Thu, Sep 10, 8:30 PM ET): Kalshi 48¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- Manon Fiorot (Noche UFC: Alexa Grasso vs. Manon Fiorot (Women's Flyweight, Main Card), Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi 71¢ vs Polymarket 69¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Steelers (Falcons vs. Steelers, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 63¢ vs Polymarket 64¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Ravens (Ravens vs. Colts, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 61¢ vs Polymarket 62¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Texans (Bills vs. Texans, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 48¢ vs Polymarket 49¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Bears (Bears vs. Panthers, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 60¢ vs Polymarket 61¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Jets (Jets vs. Titans, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 48¢ vs Polymarket 49¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Misa Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C: +2.75¢ per $1. Buy Misa Esports @ Polymarket 51¢, ReThink @ Kalshi 43¢. Fees 3.25¢.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 22¢ vs Polymarket 14¢, Kalshi 7.7 pts higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi 13¢ vs Polymarket 8¢, Kalshi 5.0 pts higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi 25¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Kalshi 5.0 pts higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Polymarket 4.7 pts higher
- Itamar Ben Gvir for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi 6¢ vs Polymarket 1¢, Kalshi 4.7 pts higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi 16¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Polymarket 4.2 pts higher
- Reach $110,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi 15¢ vs Polymarket 11¢, Kalshi 4.0 pts higher
- Reach $120,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi 12¢ vs Polymarket 8¢, Kalshi 4.0 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 455 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 149 times (33%) and on Polymarket 132 times (29%), 174 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1745, Polymarket 0.1749 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.7 pp.
- CFB: 114 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 83 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 12%
- CS2: 152 games, Kalshi closer 39%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 37 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 46%
- LALIGA: 6 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 0%
- ATP: 12 games, Kalshi closer 58%, Polymarket closer 8%
- WTA: 12 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 25%
- UCLGAME: 12 games, Kalshi closer 50%, Polymarket closer 8%
- UFC: 5 games, Kalshi closer 20%, Polymarket closer 60%
- MLS: 14 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 7%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 3¢ | +0.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 12¢ | 13¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 57¢ | 61¢ | -3.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 22¢ | 24¢ | -2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 6¢ | 2¢ | +4.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 0¢ | +1.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 4¢ | 3¢ | +0.9 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 69¢ | 67¢ | +2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 28¢ | 32¢ | -4.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.7 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 5¢ | 5¢ | -0.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 47¢ | 48¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 44¢ | 47¢ | -3.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 2¢ | +0.3 pp |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-09)
Views 12 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 1 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket