Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-09
Matched 559 events (UCL 1, Israel PM 1, GOP 2028 1, La Liga 25, Heisman 1, Fed 3, NFL MVP 1, CS2 58, CFB 239, Dem 2028 1, UFC 21, LoL 20, NBA title 1, MLB 35, France 2027 1, MLS 44, Ballon d'Or 1, NFL 32, Premier League 20, Stanley Cup 1, WNBA title 1, Bundesliga 18, Ligue 1 14, World Series 1, UCL games 11, ATP 3, WTA 3, NFL futures 1), $25.0M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-09T13:00:04.275Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- EYEBALLERS (Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group B, Wed, Sep 9, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi 37¢ vs Polymarket 33¢, Kalshi 4.0 pts higher
- Sinners (Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sinners (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest: European Qualifier Playoffs, Wed, Sep 9, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi 39¢ vs Polymarket 36¢, Kalshi 3.0 pts higher
- New Mexico State (New Mexico State vs. Hawai'i, Sun, Sep 13, 12:00 AM ET): Kalshi 29¢ vs Polymarket 27¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- NIP (Counter-Strike: NIP vs FOKUS (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Closed Qualifier Group D, Wed, Sep 9, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 64¢ vs Polymarket 62¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Invictus Gaming (LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs, Sat, Sep 12, 5:00 AM ET): Kalshi 52¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Falcons (Falcons vs. Steelers, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 37¢ vs Polymarket 38¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- St. Louis Cardinals (St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants, Wed, Sep 9, 3:45 PM ET): Kalshi 55¢ vs Polymarket 54¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Seattle Mariners (Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners, Wed, Sep 9, 4:10 PM ET): Kalshi 59¢ vs Polymarket 57¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- San Diego Padres (Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres, Wed, Sep 9, 4:10 PM ET): Kalshi 64¢ vs Polymarket 63¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Cleveland Guardians (Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles, Wed, Sep 9, 6:35 PM ET): Kalshi 51¢ vs Polymarket 52¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi 24¢ vs Polymarket 19¢, Kalshi 5.5 pts higher
- Itamar Ben Gvir for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi 6¢ vs Polymarket 1¢, Kalshi 5.0 pts higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Polymarket 4.7 pts higher
- Lamar Jackson for NFL MVP: Kalshi 10¢ vs Polymarket 14¢, Polymarket 4.0 pts higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi 16¢ vs Polymarket 19¢, Polymarket 3.3 pts higher
- Dak Prescott for NFL MVP: Kalshi 7¢ vs Polymarket 10¢, Polymarket 3.0 pts higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi 9¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Polymarket 3.0 pts higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi 39¢ vs Polymarket 36¢, Kalshi 2.9 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 352 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 113 times (32%) and on Polymarket 106 times (30%), 133 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1591, Polymarket 0.1592 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.6 pp.
- CFB: 114 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 68 games, Kalshi closer 19%, Polymarket closer 15%
- CS2: 96 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 47%
- LOL: 30 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 40%
- LALIGA: 6 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 0%
- ATP: 10 games, Kalshi closer 70%, Polymarket closer 10%
- WTA: 10 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 20%
- UCLGAME: 6 games, Kalshi closer 67%, Polymarket closer 0%
- UFC: 5 games, Kalshi closer 20%, Polymarket closer 60%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 3¢ | +0.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 10¢ | 14¢ | -4.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 56¢ | 61¢ | -4.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 22¢ | 24¢ | -1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 6¢ | 2¢ | +4.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 0¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 4¢ | 3¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 69¢ | 68¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 28¢ | 31¢ | -3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.6 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 5¢ | 5¢ | -0.8 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 49¢ | 48¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 42¢ | 44¢ | -1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 2¢ | +0.2 pp |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-08)
Views 14 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 1 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com