Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-08
Matched 557 events (CS2 57, GOP 2028 1, CFB 239, France 2027 1, MLB 35, Fed 3, Heisman 1, NFL MVP 1, MLS 44, NBA title 1, UFC 15, Israel PM 1, LoL 17, Ballon d'Or 1, NFL 32, ATP 4, Stanley Cup 1, UCL 1, WNBA title 1, Dem 2028 1, World Series 1, Premier League 20, La Liga 25, NFL futures 1, Bundesliga 18, Ligue 1 14, UCL games 17, WTA 4), $19.9M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-08T13:00:19.214Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Bushido Wildcats (Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs, Tue, Sep 8, 9:45 AM ET): Kalshi 71¢ vs Polymarket 65¢, Kalshi 5.5 pts higher
- Karen Khachanov (US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx, Wed, Sep 9, 11:30 AM ET): Kalshi 59¢ vs Polymarket 61¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- Dominion Goblins (LoL: White Dragons vs Dominion Goblins (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs, Tue, Sep 8, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi 15¢ vs Polymarket 13¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- G2 Ares (Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #8 Group Stage, Tue, Sep 8, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi 28¢ vs Polymarket 30¢, Polymarket 1.5 pts higher
- Giants (Cowboys vs. Giants, Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi 41¢ vs Polymarket 40¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Miami Marlins (New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins, Tue, Sep 8, 6:40 PM ET): Kalshi 55¢ vs Polymarket 54¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Colorado Rockies (Colorado Rockies vs. New York Yankees, Tue, Sep 8, 7:05 PM ET): Kalshi 25¢ vs Polymarket 26¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Atlanta Braves (Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves, Tue, Sep 8, 7:15 PM ET): Kalshi 53¢ vs Polymarket 52¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Washington Nationals (Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres, Tue, Sep 8, 9:40 PM ET): Kalshi 38¢ vs Polymarket 37¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Ohio State (Ohio State vs. Texas, Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi 48¢ vs Polymarket 47¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Polymarket 4.7 pts higher
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi 27¢ vs Polymarket 31¢, Polymarket 3.5 pts higher
- Dak Prescott for NFL MVP: Kalshi 7¢ vs Polymarket 10¢, Polymarket 3.0 pts higher
- Lamar Jackson for NFL MVP: Kalshi 10¢ vs Polymarket 13¢, Polymarket 3.0 pts higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi 9¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Polymarket 3.0 pts higher
- Matthew Stafford for NFL MVP: Kalshi 7¢ vs Polymarket 4¢, Kalshi 2.5 pts higher
- Harry Kane for the Ballon d'Or: Kalshi 66¢ vs Polymarket 64¢, Kalshi 2.5 pts higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi 38¢ vs Polymarket 36¢, Kalshi 2.2 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 282 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 91 times (32%) and on Polymarket 80 times (28%), 111 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1511, Polymarket 0.1513 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.6 pp.
- CFB: 114 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 53 games, Kalshi closer 19%, Polymarket closer 17%
- CS2: 65 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 45%
- LOL: 21 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 29%
- LALIGA: 6 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 0%
- ATP: 8 games, Kalshi closer 63%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WTA: 8 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 25%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 3¢ | +0.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 12¢ | 13¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 57¢ | 61¢ | -3.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 22¢ | 25¢ | -3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 5¢ | 2¢ | +2.6 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 0¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 5¢ | 3¢ | +1.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 69¢ | 68¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 28¢ | 31¢ | -3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.6 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.2 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 5¢ | 7¢ | -2.2 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 49¢ | 49¢ | 0.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 42¢ | 44¢ | -1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 1¢ | +1.1 pp |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-07)
Views 20 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com