Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-07
Matched 441 events (LoL 18, GOP 2028 1, CS2 53, Fed 3, NFL MVP 1, La Liga 27, France 2027 1, MLS 44, NBA title 1, Heisman 1, MLB 41, Israel PM 1, CFB 118, Stanley Cup 1, WNBA title 1, Dem 2028 1, Bundesliga 18, Ballon d'Or 1, World Series 1, NFL 32, Premier League 20, Ligue 1 14, UFC 11, UCL games 17, ATP 6, WTA 6, UCL 1, NFL futures 1), $15.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-07T12:59:57.225Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- The Otter Side (LoL: Bubliki vs The Otter Side (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs, Mon, Sep 7, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi 60¢ vs Polymarket 53¢, Kalshi 7.0 pts higher
- CYBERSHOKE Esports (Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - 1win Private Club #1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs, Mon, Sep 7, 1:30 PM ET): Kalshi 45¢ vs Polymarket 48¢, Polymarket 3.0 pts higher
- mellren (Counter-Strike: mellren vs Esport BERG (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #6 Group D, Mon, Sep 7, 9:00 AM ET): Kalshi 67¢ vs Polymarket 65¢, Kalshi 1.5 pts higher
- Leo Team (Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #8 Group Stage, Mon, Sep 7, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi 53¢ vs Polymarket 52¢, Kalshi 1.5 pts higher
- 49ers (49ers vs. Rams, Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET): Kalshi 37¢ vs Polymarket 36¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Giants (Cowboys vs. Giants, Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi 41¢ vs Polymarket 40¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Philadelphia Phillies (Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies, Mon, Sep 7, 1:05 PM ET): Kalshi 61¢ vs Polymarket 60¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Baltimore Orioles (Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles, Mon, Sep 7, 1:35 PM ET): Kalshi 54¢ vs Polymarket 55¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Los Angeles Angels (Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox, Mon, Sep 7, 1:35 PM ET): Kalshi 38¢ vs Polymarket 39¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Arizona Diamondbacks (Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals, Mon, Sep 7, 2:10 PM ET): Kalshi 50¢ vs Polymarket 51¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Polymarket 4.7 pts higher
- Lamar Jackson for NFL MVP: Kalshi 10¢ vs Polymarket 14¢, Polymarket 4.0 pts higher
- Dak Prescott for NFL MVP: Kalshi 7¢ vs Polymarket 10¢, Polymarket 3.9 pts higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi 39¢ vs Polymarket 35¢, Kalshi 3.7 pts higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi 9¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Polymarket 3.0 pts higher
- Matthew Stafford for NFL MVP: Kalshi 7¢ vs Polymarket 4¢, Kalshi 2.7 pts higher
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi 6¢ vs Polymarket 3¢, Kalshi 2.6 pts higher
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi 27¢ vs Polymarket 30¢, Polymarket 2.5 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 229 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 73 times (32%) and on Polymarket 67 times (29%), 89 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1392, Polymarket 0.1391 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.5 pp.
- CFB: 113 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 28%
- MLB: 42 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 21%
- CS2: 41 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 46%
- LOL: 14 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 36%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 3¢ | +0.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 12¢ | 14¢ | -1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 56¢ | 61¢ | -4.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 22¢ | 25¢ | -3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 7¢ | 2¢ | +4.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.2 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 6¢ | 7¢ | -1.2 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 49¢ | 48¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 42¢ | 44¢ | -2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 2¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 0¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 5¢ | 3¢ | +1.2 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 69¢ | 68¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 28¢ | 29¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.6 pp |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-06)
Views 19 · expands 2 · spotlight clicks 1 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com