Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-06
Matched 443 events (CS2 54, France 2027 1, MLB 41, GOP 2028 1, NFL MVP 1, Fed 3, UCL 1, CFB 124, LoL 25, Heisman 1, Israel PM 1, La Liga 26, NBA title 1, ATP 8, Ballon d'Or 1, Bundesliga 17, Dem 2028 1, NFL 32, Premier League 18, Ligue 1 15, MLS 31, UCL games 17, UFC 11, WNBA title 1, Stanley Cup 1, World Series 1, NFL futures 1, WTA 8), $26.8M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-06T13:00:58.813Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Tommy Paul (US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz, Sun, Sep 6, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi 18¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- Patriots (Patriots vs. Seahawks, Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi 39¢ vs Polymarket 38¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Rams (49ers vs. Rams, Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET): Kalshi 64¢ vs Polymarket 65¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds, Sun, Sep 6, 12:10 PM ET): Kalshi 61¢ vs Polymarket 60¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Atlanta Braves (Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies, Sun, Sep 6, 1:10 PM ET): Kalshi 51¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Detroit Tigers (Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians, Sun, Sep 6, 1:40 PM ET): Kalshi 40¢ vs Polymarket 39¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Tampa Bay Rays (Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers, Sun, Sep 6, 2:35 PM ET): Kalshi 50¢ vs Polymarket 51¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Texas Southern (Texas Southern vs. Prairie View A&M, Sun, Sep 6, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi 23¢ vs Polymarket 22¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Washington (Washington State vs. Washington, Sun, Sep 6, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi 94¢ vs Polymarket 93¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Louisville (Louisville vs. Ole Miss, Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi 31¢ vs Polymarket 32¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Counter-Strike: regain vs Axial (BO3) - NSTLGA League Group Stage: +0.36¢ per $1. Buy Axial @ Polymarket 15¢, regain @ Kalshi 83¢. Fees 1.64¢.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi 26¢ vs Polymarket 31¢, Polymarket 5.5 pts higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Polymarket 4.7 pts higher
- Dak Prescott for NFL MVP: Kalshi 7¢ vs Polymarket 11¢, Polymarket 4.3 pts higher
- Lamar Jackson for NFL MVP: Kalshi 10¢ vs Polymarket 14¢, Polymarket 4.0 pts higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi 22¢ vs Polymarket 19¢, Kalshi 4.0 pts higher
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi 6¢ vs Polymarket 3¢, Kalshi 3.1 pts higher
- Matthew Stafford for NFL MVP: Kalshi 7¢ vs Polymarket 4¢, Kalshi 3.0 pts higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi 9¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Polymarket 3.0 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 139 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 49 times (35%) and on Polymarket 39 times (28%), 51 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1017, Polymarket 0.1017 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.5 pp.
- CFB: 107 games, Kalshi closer 40%, Polymarket closer 29%
- MLB: 27 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 26%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 3¢ | +0.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 12¢ | 14¢ | -1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 57¢ | 61¢ | -3.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 22¢ | 25¢ | -3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 7¢ | 2¢ | +4.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.2 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 6¢ | 7¢ | -1.4 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 49¢ | 45¢ | +4.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 42¢ | 45¢ | -3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 2¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.9 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 5¢ | 4¢ | +0.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 69¢ | 68¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 27¢ | 28¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.8 pp |
Traffic yesterday (2026-09-05)
Views 25 · expands 7 · spotlight clicks 2 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com