Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-05
Matched 288 events (Fed 3, GOP 2028 1, UCL 1, MLB 41, Dem 2028 1, CFB 206, NBA title 1, WNBA title 1, NFL 32, NFL futures 1), $37.2M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-05T20:55:46.392Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Nevada (Western Kentucky vs. Nevada, Sat, Sep 5, 10:30 PM ET): Kalshi 49¢ vs Polymarket 51¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- Patriots (Patriots vs. Seahawks, Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi 39¢ vs Polymarket 37¢, Kalshi 1.5 pts higher
- Bucknell (Villanova vs. Bucknell, Sat, Sep 5, 6:00 PM ET): Kalshi 5¢ vs Polymarket 6¢, Polymarket 1.5 pts higher
- Cleveland Guardians (Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians, Sat, Sep 5, 6:10 PM ET): Kalshi 59¢ vs Polymarket 60¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- Tampa Bay Rays (Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers, Sat, Sep 5, 7:05 PM ET): Kalshi 50¢ vs Polymarket 49¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Minnesota Twins (Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox, Sat, Sep 5, 7:10 PM ET): Kalshi 48¢ vs Polymarket 47¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- New York Yankees (New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres, Sat, Sep 5, 7:15 PM ET): Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 45¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Southern Miss (Alcorn State vs. Southern Miss, Sat, Sep 5, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi 92¢ vs Polymarket 91¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Colorado State (Wyoming vs. Colorado State, Sat, Sep 5, 6:00 PM ET): Kalshi 57¢ vs Polymarket 59¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
- LSU (Clemson vs. LSU, Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi 78¢ vs Polymarket 79¢, Polymarket 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Polymarket 4.9 pts higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi 22¢ vs Polymarket 18¢, Kalshi 4.0 pts higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi 17¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Polymarket 3.3 pts higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi 9¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Polymarket 3.0 pts higher
- San Antonio Spurs for the NBA title: Kalshi 23¢ vs Polymarket 21¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- New York Liberty for the WNBA title: Kalshi 7¢ vs Polymarket 9¢, Polymarket 2.0 pts higher
- Minnesota Lynx for the WNBA title: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 48¢, Polymarket 1.5 pts higher
- Paris Saint-Germain for the Champions League: Kalshi 15¢ vs Polymarket 14¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 20 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 6 times (30%) and on Polymarket 7 times (35%), 7 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.1421, Polymarket 0.1404 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.5 pp.
- CFB: 8 games, Kalshi closer 50%, Polymarket closer 25%
- MLB: 12 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 42%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 2¢ | 0.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 6¢ | 6¢ | -0.4 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 50¢ | 45¢ | +5.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 41¢ | 45¢ | -3.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 3¢ | 2¢ | +0.8 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 3¢ | +0.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 12¢ | 14¢ | -1.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 57¢ | 61¢ | -3.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 22¢ | 25¢ | -2.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 7¢ | 2¢ | +4.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.9 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 5¢ | 4¢ | +0.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 69¢ | 68¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 27¢ | 28¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.8 pp |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com