Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-09-05
Matched 313 events (GOP 2028 1, Fed 3, UCL 1, MLB 44, Dem 2028 1, NBA title 1, WNBA title 1, CFB 228, NFL 32, NFL futures 1), $27.6M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-09-05T03:51:41.732Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Oklahoma (Oklahoma vs. Michigan, Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi 53¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Kalshi 2.5 pts higher
- Texas (Ohio State vs. Texas, Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi 54¢ vs Polymarket 52¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Patriots (Patriots vs. Seahawks, Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi 39¢ vs Polymarket 38¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- 49ers (49ers vs. Rams, Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET): Kalshi 37¢ vs Polymarket 36¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Saints (Saints vs. Lions, Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi 27¢ vs Polymarket 26¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Chargers (Cardinals vs. Chargers, Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi 83¢ vs Polymarket 82¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Broncos (Broncos vs. Chiefs, Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi 45¢ vs Polymarket 44¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Philadelphia Phillies (Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies, Sat, Sep 5, 6:05 PM ET): Kalshi 60¢ vs Polymarket 59¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- Los Angeles Dodgers (Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, Sat, Sep 5, 9:10 PM ET): Kalshi 69¢ vs Polymarket 68¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
- West Virginia (Coastal Carolina vs. West Virginia, Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi 93¢ vs Polymarket 92¢, Kalshi 1.0 pts higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi 46¢ vs Polymarket 50¢, Polymarket 4.9 pts higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi 21¢ vs Polymarket 17¢, Kalshi 4.0 pts higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi 17¢ vs Polymarket 20¢, Polymarket 3.3 pts higher
- New York Knicks for the NBA title: Kalshi 9¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Polymarket 3.0 pts higher
- New York Liberty for the WNBA title: Kalshi 6¢ vs Polymarket 9¢, Polymarket 3.0 pts higher
- San Antonio Spurs for the NBA title: Kalshi 23¢ vs Polymarket 21¢, Kalshi 2.0 pts higher
- Real Madrid for the Champions League: Kalshi 15¢ vs Polymarket 14¢, Kalshi 1.5 pts higher
- Indiana Fever for the WNBA title: Kalshi 10¢ vs Polymarket 12¢, Polymarket 1.5 pts higher
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | 4¢ | 4¢ | -0.2 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | 12¢ | 14¢ | -2.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | 57¢ | 61¢ | -3.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | 21¢ | 24¢ | -3.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | 7¢ | 2¢ | +4.8 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.1 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | 6¢ | 5¢ | +0.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | 49¢ | 45¢ | +4.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 41¢ | 44¢ | -3.5 pp |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 2¢ | +0.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.8 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | 5¢ | 4¢ | +0.3 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 69¢ | 68¢ | +1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | 27¢ | 28¢ | -1.0 pp |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1¢ | +0.8 pp |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.fly.dev