Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-19
Matched 465 events (CS2 53, Israel PM 1, ETH low 2026 1, WNBA 3, GOP 2028 1, NHL 37, UCL 1, France 2027 1, Heisman 1, NBA 43, NFL MVP 1, WTA 17, Fed 3, CFB 111, NBA title 1, Stanley Cup 1, Ballon d'Or 1, Dem 2028 1, La Liga 18, UFC 9, NFL 15, MLS 37, ATP 29, ETH high 2026 1, NFL futures 1, Ligue 1 14, Premier League 20, BTC low 2026 1, Bundesliga 18, UCL games 17, LoL 3, BTC high 2026 1, World Series 1, WNBA title 1, MLB 1), $30.3M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-19T13:01:53.543Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- FC Barcelona (FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF, Sun, Oct 25, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.66 vs Polymarket $0.63, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Falcons (49ers vs. Falcons, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.30, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Stanford (NC State vs. Stanford, Fri, Oct 23, 10:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.27 vs Polymarket $0.29, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Packers (Packers vs. Lions, Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.41, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Saints (Steelers vs. Saints, Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.43, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Bengals (Bengals vs. Ravens, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.42 vs Polymarket $0.43, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Eagles (Cowboys vs. Eagles, Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.36 vs Polymarket $0.34, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- South Carolina (Tennessee vs. South Carolina, Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.55, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Alabama (Texas A&M vs. Alabama, Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.84 vs Polymarket $0.85, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Avalanche (Avalanche vs. Flyers, Mon, Oct 19, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.68 vs Polymarket $0.69, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.47, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.14, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.24, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- François Hollande for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Drake Maye for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Oklahoma City Thunder for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.23 vs Polymarket $0.20, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 4563 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1477 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1337 times (29%), 1749 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2019, Polymarket 0.2018 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 807 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 351 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1563 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 360 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 41 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 17%
- LALIGA: 46 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 38 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 32 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 13%
- ATP: 332 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 21%
- WTA: 408 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 34 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 91 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 91 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 103 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WNBA: 47 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 153 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 19%
- NBA: 66 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 24%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.22 | $0.20 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.75 | $0.78 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.63 | $0.63 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.33 | $0.35 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.87 | $0.88 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.13 | $0.13 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-18)
Views 1 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket