Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-15
Matched 419 events (Israel PM 1, France 2027 1, CS2 43, NHL 32, ATP 12, Stanley Cup 1, Fed 4, NFL MVP 1, CFB 183, UFC 10, BTC low 2026 1, NFL futures 1, NBA 34, GOP 2028 1, ETH low 2026 1, ETH high 2026 1, NFL 26, WTA 1, UCL 1, La Liga 9, Ligue 1 7, MLS 8, UCL games 17, Dem 2028 1, Premier League 10, Bundesliga 9, NBA title 1, Heisman 1, BTC high 2026 1), $29.2M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-15T14:02:24.412Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Mirra Andreeva (WTA Finals, Final Stage: Elina Svitolina vs Mirra Andreeva, Sun, Nov 15, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.73 vs Polymarket $0.71, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Bills (Bills vs. Jets, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.80 vs Polymarket $0.79, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Browns (Texans vs. Browns, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.34, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Falcons (Chiefs vs. Falcons, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.38 vs Polymarket $0.37, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cardinals (Rams vs. Cardinals, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.19, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cowboys (49ers vs. Cowboys, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.35 vs Polymarket $0.36, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Bengals (Steelers vs. Bengals, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.64 vs Polymarket $0.65, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Ravens (Chargers vs. Ravens, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.66, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- South Carolina (Georgia vs. South Carolina, Sat, Nov 21, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.14, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Hornets (Hornets vs. Clippers, Sun, Nov 15, 4:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.50, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.64, Polymarket $0.16 higher
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.10 vs Polymarket $0.20, Polymarket $0.10 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.46, Kalshi $0.07 higher
- Minnesota Wild for the Stanley Cup: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Carolina Hurricanes for the Stanley Cup: Kalshi $0.17 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Jordan Love for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.30, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Dip to $40,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 7070 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 2255 times (32%) and on Polymarket 2002 times (28%), 2813 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2063, Polymarket 0.2063 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1284 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 25%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2436 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 40%
- LOL: 406 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 72 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LALIGA: 74 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 65 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LIGUE1: 53 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 579 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 639 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 68 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 137 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 24%
- NFL: 136 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 161 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 296 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 254 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.05 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.11 | $0.08 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.62 | $0.64 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.20 | $0.24 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.06 | $0.06 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.36 | $0.36 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.60 | $0.56 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.04 | $0.02 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.40 | $0.41 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.59 | $0.57 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.87 | $0.87 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.10 | $0.09 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-14)
Views 2 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket