Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-14
Matched 485 events (Israel PM 1, France 2027 1, CS2 37, Fed 4, CFB 259, ETH high 2026 1, Stanley Cup 1, GOP 2028 1, BTC low 2026 1, ETH low 2026 1, NBA 32, NHL 34, NFL 26, Heisman 1, NFL MVP 1, NFL futures 1, UFC 12, UCL games 17, UCL 1, Premier League 10, La Liga 9, Ligue 1 7, MLS 8, ATP 4, Dem 2028 1, Bundesliga 9, WTA 2, NBA title 1, BTC high 2026 1, LoL 1), $34.8M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-14T14:03:10.653Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Lakers (Lakers vs. Suns, Sun, Nov 15, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.63, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Florida Atlantic (Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa, Sat, Nov 14, 7:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.31, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Stephen Thompson (UFC 334: Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke (Welterweight, Prelims), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.54, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Caio Borralho (UFC 334: Caio Borralho vs. Yousri Belgaroui (Middleweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.57, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Kayla Harrison (UFC 334: Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Browns (Texans vs. Browns, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.32, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Colts (Dolphins vs. Colts, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.66, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cardinals (Rams vs. Cardinals, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.21, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Bengals (Steelers vs. Bengals, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.64, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Ravens (Chargers vs. Ravens, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.66, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.64, Polymarket $0.14 higher
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.20, Polymarket $0.11 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.47, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- David Lisnard for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Minnesota Wild for the Stanley Cup: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- John McEntee for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Dip to $40,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.04, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 6891 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 2216 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1967 times (29%), 2708 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2061, Polymarket 0.2061 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1168 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 26%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2405 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 40%
- LOL: 405 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 72 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LALIGA: 74 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 65 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LIGUE1: 53 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 578 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 637 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 68 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 126 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 136 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 161 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 284 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 249 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.04 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.11 | $0.08 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.62 | $0.64 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.21 | $0.26 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.05 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.37 | $0.38 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.60 | $0.56 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.04 | $0.02 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.89 | $0.88 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.11 | $0.08 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.42 | $0.42 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.56 | $0.57 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-13)
Views 3 · expands 12 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 1 · outbound Polymarket 1 · click-through 67%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket