Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-13
Matched 483 events (CS2 44, Israel PM 1, France 2027 1, NBA 32, ETH low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, NHL 35, NFL MVP 1, ETH high 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, MLS 8, CFB 252, Fed 4, BTC high 2026 1, Stanley Cup 1, NFL futures 1, NFL 26, UFC 12, UCL games 17, UCL 1, Dem 2028 1, Heisman 1, NBA title 1, La Liga 9, Bundesliga 9, Ligue 1 7, Premier League 10, ATP 3, LoL 1), $40.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-13T14:01:10.012Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Sam Houston (Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston, Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.27 vs Polymarket $0.29, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Amanda Nunes (UFC 334: Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.39, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Lions (Patriots vs. Lions, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.59, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Texans (Texans vs. Browns, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.68 vs Polymarket $0.69, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Colts (Dolphins vs. Colts, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.66, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bengals (Steelers vs. Bengals, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.64, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- UCLA (Illinois vs. UCLA, Fri, Nov 13, 9:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.79 vs Polymarket $0.78, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Colorado (Houston vs. Colorado, Fri, Nov 13, 10:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.26 vs Polymarket $0.25, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Clemson (Georgia Tech vs. Clemson, Sat, Nov 14, 12:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.85 vs Polymarket $0.84, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Oklahoma (Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma, Sat, Nov 14, 4:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Counter-Strike: ex-INOX Division vs BakS eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage: +0.75% after fees. Buy BakS eSports @ Polymarket $0.51, ex-INOX Division @ Kalshi $0.45. Fees 3.25%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.21, Polymarket $0.12 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.52 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.11 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.52 vs Polymarket $0.46, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- David Lisnard for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.36 vs Polymarket $0.32, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.23 vs Polymarket $0.19, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Jordan Love for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.10, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 6838 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 2196 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1949 times (29%), 2693 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2061, Polymarket 0.206 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1164 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 26%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2369 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 405 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 72 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LALIGA: 74 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 65 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LIGUE1: 53 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 576 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 636 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 68 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 126 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 136 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 161 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 283 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 240 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 18%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.05 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.11 | $0.09 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.61 | $0.62 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.22 | $0.25 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.03 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.37 | $0.36 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.59 | $0.61 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.04 | $0.01 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.00 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.42 | $0.43 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.56 | $0.56 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.92 | $0.92 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.07 | $0.06 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-12)
Views 2 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket