Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-12
Matched 489 events (CS2 47, Israel PM 1, Fed 4, NHL 36, GOP 2028 1, France 2027 1, NBA 30, NFL MVP 1, BTC high 2026 1, NFL 27, CFB 254, Ligue 1 7, ETH high 2026 1, Heisman 1, Stanley Cup 1, NFL futures 1, La Liga 9, MLS 8, UFC 12, UCL games 17, Premier League 10, UCL 1, BTC low 2026 1, Bundesliga 9, NBA title 1, Dem 2028 1, LoL 2, ETH low 2026 1, ATP 3), $23.3M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-12T14:03:12.096Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Amanda Nunes (UFC 334: Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.38, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Warriors (Warriors vs. Spurs, Fri, Nov 13, 9:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.18, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Giants (Commanders vs. Giants, Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.55, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cardinals (Rams vs. Cardinals, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.20, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- 49ers (49ers vs. Cowboys, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.66, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Georgia (Missouri vs. Georgia, Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.88 vs Polymarket $0.87, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- LSU (Texas vs. LSU, Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Pistons (Pistons vs. Wizards, Thu, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.79 vs Polymarket $0.80, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Hornets (Hornets vs. Suns, Thu, Nov 12, 9:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.34, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Lightning (Lightning vs. Blue Jackets, Thu, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.49 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.14 higher
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.20, Polymarket $0.11 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.35 vs Polymarket $0.31, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.46, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- David Lisnard for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.16, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Jordan Love for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.05 vs Polymarket $0.08, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 6783 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 2176 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1935 times (29%), 2672 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.206, Polymarket 0.206 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1162 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 26%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2333 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 404 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 72 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LALIGA: 74 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 65 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LIGUE1: 53 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 574 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 636 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 68 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 126 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 135 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 161 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 274 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 236 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.05 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.14 | $0.09 | +$0.05 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.63 | $0.66 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.19 | $0.18 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.88 | $0.87 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.09 | $0.08 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.44 | $0.44 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.55 | $0.56 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.00 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.37 | $0.38 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.57 | $0.59 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket