Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-11
Matched 486 events (CS2 35, Israel PM 1, NHL 38, CFB 256, Fed 4, NBA title 1, France 2027 1, BTC low 2026 1, BTC high 2026 1, ETH low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, MLS 7, Stanley Cup 1, UCL games 17, Heisman 1, NFL futures 1, NBA 34, La Liga 9, UCL 1, ETH high 2026 1, NFL MVP 1, Dem 2028 1, NFL 27, Premier League 10, Ligue 1 7, LoL 3, Bundesliga 9, ATP 4, WTA 2, UFC 10), $31.8M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-11T14:01:32.893Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- LSU (Texas vs. LSU, Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Saigon Warriors (LoL: Nothin'Here vs Saigon Warriors (BO5) - LCP Promotion Playoffs, Thu, Nov 12, 4:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.84 vs Polymarket $0.86, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Lions (Patriots vs. Lions, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.59, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Colts (Dolphins vs. Colts, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.66, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- 49ers (49ers vs. Cowboys, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.66, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Ball State (Buffalo vs. Ball State, Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Indiana (USC vs. Indiana, Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.72 vs Polymarket $0.73, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Utah (Utah vs. Arizona, Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.56, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Celtics (Celtics vs. Raptors, Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.71 vs Polymarket $0.70, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cavaliers (Cavaliers vs. Knicks, Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.38, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs underw0rld (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage: +0.17% after fees. Buy underw0rld @ Kalshi $0.18, QUINTESSÊNCIA @ Polymarket $0.79. Fees 2.83%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.23, Polymarket $0.12 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.54 vs Polymarket $0.61, Polymarket $0.07 higher
- Golden State Warriors for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.05 vs Polymarket $0.09, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.46, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.17 vs Polymarket $0.14, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 6726 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 2156 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1917 times (29%), 2653 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2063, Polymarket 0.2062 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1159 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 26%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2301 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 402 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 72 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LALIGA: 74 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 65 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LIGUE1: 53 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 570 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 23%
- WTA: 634 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 68 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 126 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 135 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 161 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 270 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 226 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.05 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.13 | $0.10 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.63 | $0.66 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.13 | $0.17 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.47 | $0.46 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.52 | $0.54 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.00 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.41 | $0.41 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.55 | $0.55 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.05 | $0.04 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.85 | $0.86 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.11 | $0.11 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-10)
Views 2 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket