Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-10
Matched 488 events (Israel PM 1, France 2027 1, CS2 46, Fed 4, NBA 33, NHL 35, BTC low 2026 1, NFL MVP 1, GOP 2028 1, UCL games 9, Heisman 1, Dem 2028 1, Stanley Cup 1, NBA title 1, CFB 258, La Liga 9, UFC 10, UCL 1, BTC high 2026 1, ETH high 2026 1, NFL futures 1, Premier League 10, Ligue 1 7, ATP 6, LoL 3, NFL 27, Bundesliga 9, MLS 6, WTA 2, ETH low 2026 1), $31.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-10T14:03:16.572Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Warriors (Warriors vs. Rockets, Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.38 vs Polymarket $0.37, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Giants (Commanders vs. Giants, Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.56, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Browns (Texans vs. Browns, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.33, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Packers (Vikings vs. Packers, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.68 vs Polymarket $0.67, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Rams (Rams vs. Cardinals, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.80 vs Polymarket $0.79, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Raiders (Seahawks vs. Raiders, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.38, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Steelers (Steelers vs. Bengals, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.36, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Ravens (Chargers vs. Ravens, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.69 vs Polymarket $0.68, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Miami (OH) (Ohio vs. Miami (OH), Tue, Nov 10, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- LSU (Texas vs. LSU, Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.24, Polymarket $0.15 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.07 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.45, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Jordan Love for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.12, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.31, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Trevor Lawrence for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.10, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Dip to $45,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 6680 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 2138 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1902 times (28%), 2640 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2065, Polymarket 0.2064 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1156 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 26%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2276 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 402 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 72 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LALIGA: 74 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 65 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LIGUE1: 53 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 565 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 23%
- WTA: 632 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 68 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 126 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 135 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 161 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 265 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 220 games, Kalshi closer 24%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.06 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.13 | $0.09 | +$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.63 | $0.66 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.11 | $0.15 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.03 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.06 | $0.06 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.45 | $0.45 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.41 | $0.39 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.61 | $0.64 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.38 | $0.36 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.04 | $0.03 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.86 | $0.86 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.10 | $0.11 | −$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-09)
Views 3 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 1 · outbound Polymarket 1 · click-through 67%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket