Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-09
Matched 458 events (CFB 256, Israel PM 1, NHL 37, Dem 2028 1, NBA 32, CS2 45, NBA title 1, Fed 4, ETH high 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, NFL MVP 1, La Liga 8, UFC 10, France 2027 1, Bundesliga 9, Stanley Cup 1, BTC high 2026 1, LoL 4, ETH low 2026 1, NFL futures 1, Ligue 1 7, ATP 6, UCL 1, GOP 2028 1, NFL 15, Premier League 9, WTA 2, Heisman 1), $22.7M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-09T14:08:36.578Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Texas (Texas vs. LSU, Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.40, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Indiana (USC vs. Indiana, Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.70 vs Polymarket $0.71, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Commanders (Commanders vs. Giants, Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.46, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Saints (Panthers vs. Saints, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- 49ers (49ers vs. Cowboys, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.68, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Lakers (Lakers vs. Hawks, Mon, Nov 9, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.49, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Pistons (Wizards vs. Pistons, Mon, Nov 9, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.83 vs Polymarket $0.82, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Nuggets (Nuggets vs. Rockets, Mon, Nov 9, 8:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.26 vs Polymarket $0.27, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Warriors (Pelicans vs. Warriors, Mon, Nov 9, 10:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.78 vs Polymarket $0.79, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Celtics (Celtics vs. 76ers, Tue, Nov 10, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.27, Polymarket $0.16 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.54 vs Polymarket $0.59, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Gavin Newsom for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Avigdor Lieberman for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.04 vs Polymarket $0.07, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Golden State Warriors for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.16, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 6627 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 2124 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1883 times (28%), 2620 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2065, Polymarket 0.2065 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1156 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 26%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2245 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 40%
- LOL: 400 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 72 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LALIGA: 74 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 65 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 14%
- LIGUE1: 53 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 559 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 23%
- WTA: 630 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 68 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 126 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 134 games, Kalshi closer 13%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 161 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 262 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 212 games, Kalshi closer 24%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.06 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.13 | $0.10 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.63 | $0.66 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.16 | $0.19 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.06 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.56 | $0.54 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.37 | $0.36 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.76 | $0.78 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.20 | $0.19 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.23 | $0.23 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.77 | $0.77 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-08)
Views 1 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket