Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-08
Matched 473 events (CFB 249, Israel PM 1, NBA 35, Fed 4, CS2 38, NHL 38, UFC 10, ETH high 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, Dem 2028 1, ATP 10, ETH low 2026 1, UCL 1, NFL MVP 1, France 2027 1, NFL futures 1, NBA title 1, NFL 28, BTC high 2026 1, Ligue 1 8, Stanley Cup 1, Bundesliga 10, Heisman 1, GOP 2028 1, Premier League 12, La Liga 10, WTA 3, LoL 4), $40.7M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-08T14:00:48.913Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Giants (Giants vs. Eagles, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.59, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Penguins (Penguins vs. Ducks, Sun, Nov 8, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Ciryl Gane (UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.66 vs Polymarket $0.68, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Saints (Browns vs. Saints, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Panthers (Broncos vs. Panthers, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.42, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Chargers (Texans vs. Chargers, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.32 vs Polymarket $0.33, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Patriots (Packers vs. Patriots, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Indiana (USC vs. Indiana, Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.69 vs Polymarket $0.68, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- 76ers (76ers vs. Bulls, Sun, Nov 8, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.79 vs Polymarket $0.78, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Kings (Heat vs. Kings, Sun, Nov 8, 9:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.22 vs Polymarket $0.23, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.11 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.71, Polymarket $0.08 higher
- Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $45,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Dip to $1,250 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Dip to $50,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 6554 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 2103 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1870 times (29%), 2581 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2065, Polymarket 0.2065 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1156 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 26%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2224 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 399 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 67 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 69 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 62 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 11%
- LIGUE1: 49 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 16%
- ATP: 552 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 627 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 68 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 126 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 121 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 161 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 258 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 205 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.06 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.13 | $0.09 | +$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.61 | $0.59 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.11 | $0.16 | −$0.05 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.06 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.53 | $0.54 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.39 | $0.36 | +$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.75 | $0.78 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.20 | $0.19 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.23 | $0.22 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.77 | $0.77 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-07)
Views 3 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket