Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-07
Matched 484 events (CS2 49, NBA 31, Israel PM 1, Fed 4, NHL 36, ATP 5, Dem 2028 1, BTC low 2026 1, NBA title 1, GOP 2028 1, UFC 22, CFB 240, France 2027 1, NFL futures 1, BTC high 2026 1, ETH low 2026 1, MLS 15, UCL 1, ETH high 2026 1, Stanley Cup 1, NFL 28, NFL MVP 1, Heisman 1, Premier League 9, La Liga 9, Bundesliga 9, Ligue 1 7, WTA 2, LoL 4), $43.0M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-07T14:03:03.869Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Davey Grant (UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith (Bantamweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.25 vs Polymarket $0.27, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Harvard (Columbia vs. Harvard, Sat, Nov 7, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.93 vs Polymarket $0.91, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Ciryl Gane (UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.66 vs Polymarket $0.67, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Panthers (Broncos vs. Panthers, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.42, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Eagles (Giants vs. Eagles, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.40, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Patriots (Packers vs. Patriots, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Utah (BYU vs. Utah, Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.64, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Monmouth (North Carolina A&T vs. Monmouth, Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.89 vs Polymarket $0.90, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Auburn (Arkansas vs. Auburn, Sat, Nov 7, 12:45 PM ET): Kalshi $0.79 vs Polymarket $0.78, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Houston (Cincinnati vs. Houston, Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.78 vs Polymarket $0.79, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: +0.04% after fees. Buy Pelicans @ Kalshi $0.23, Warriors @ Polymarket $0.74. Fees 2.96%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.21, Polymarket $0.14 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.52 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.11 higher
- Avigdor Lieberman for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.03 vs Polymarket $0.07, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Dip to $45,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Golden State Warriors for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Ron DeSantis for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.18 vs Polymarket $0.14, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 6344 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 2040 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1820 times (29%), 2484 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2067, Polymarket 0.2067 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1045 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 26%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2194 games, Kalshi closer 41%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 398 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 63 games, Kalshi closer 19%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 66 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 57 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 12%
- LIGUE1: 47 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 17%
- ATP: 546 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 624 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 68 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 113 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 121 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 146 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 248 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 198 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.06 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.11 | $0.09 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.56 | $0.59 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.11 | $0.17 | −$0.05 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.25 | $0.22 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.77 | $0.77 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.75 | $0.74 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.21 | $0.19 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.06 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.54 | $0.55 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.36 | $0.36 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-06)
Views 2 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket