Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-06
Matched 474 events (CS2 33, Israel PM 1, GOP 2028 1, Fed 4, NHL 37, UFC 21, Dem 2028 1, BTC low 2026 1, BTC high 2026 1, ETH high 2026 1, ETH low 2026 1, CFB 245, NBA 34, WTA 3, UCL 1, Stanley Cup 1, Premier League 10, MLS 15, Ligue 1 7, NFL MVP 1, France 2027 1, NFL 28, NFL futures 1, Heisman 1, NBA title 1, La Liga 9, Bundesliga 9, ATP 4, LoL 1), $38.0M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-06T14:00:52.998Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- your end (Counter-Strike: your end vs Low Cortisol (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage, Fri, Nov 6, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.42 vs Polymarket $0.48, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Lucrezia Stefanini (Chennai Open: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lucrezia Stefanini, Fri, Nov 6, 10:20 AM ET): Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.51, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Ciryl Gane (UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.66 vs Polymarket $0.68, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Leeds United FC (Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC, Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.36 vs Polymarket $0.34, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Eagles (Giants vs. Eagles, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.38, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Chargers (Texans vs. Chargers, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.32 vs Polymarket $0.31, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- 49ers (Raiders vs. 49ers, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.80 vs Polymarket $0.81, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Bears (Buccaneers vs. Bears, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.71 vs Polymarket $0.72, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Vikings (Bills vs. Vikings, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.38, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- SMU (Virginia Tech vs. SMU, Fri, Nov 6, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.68, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Counter-Strike: your end vs Low Cortisol (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage: +0.75% after fees. Buy Low Cortisol @ Polymarket $0.53, your end @ Kalshi $0.43. Fees 3.25%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.22, Polymarket $0.15 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.66, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.39, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Ron DeSantis for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.18 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Avigdor Lieberman for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.03 vs Polymarket $0.07, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Dip to $55,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.12, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.08, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 6288 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 2020 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1806 times (29%), 2462 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2069, Polymarket 0.2068 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1040 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2171 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 398 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 62 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 65 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 56 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LIGUE1: 46 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 17%
- ATP: 540 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 617 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 68 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 113 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 121 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 146 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 246 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 189 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 18%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.11 | $0.09 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.58 | $0.60 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.12 | $0.17 | −$0.05 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.74 | $0.74 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.21 | $0.19 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.05 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.55 | $0.55 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.40 | $0.38 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.22 | $0.22 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.79 | $0.79 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-05)
Views 2 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 1 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket