Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-05
Matched 506 events (Israel PM 1, Fed 4, UFC 22, CS2 63, NHL 37, GOP 2028 1, France 2027 1, CFB 248, NFL MVP 1, NBA 25, NBA title 1, NFL 29, UCL 1, Heisman 1, MLS 15, ETH low 2026 1, Stanley Cup 1, WTA 7, Ligue 1 7, Dem 2028 1, NFL futures 1, ETH high 2026 1, Premier League 10, La Liga 9, Bundesliga 9, ATP 6, LoL 1, BTC high 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1), $37.2M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-05T14:00:46.601Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Ciryl Gane (UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.66 vs Polymarket $0.69, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Suns (Magic vs. Suns, Thu, Nov 5, 9:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.53, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Devils (Blues vs. Devils, Thu, Nov 5, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.64 vs Polymarket $0.66, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Natus Vincere (Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs, Fri, Nov 6, 1:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.72 vs Polymarket $0.74, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Commanders (Rams vs. Commanders, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.34, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Texans (Texans vs. Chargers, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.68, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Seahawks (Cardinals vs. Seahawks, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.79 vs Polymarket $0.78, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bears (Buccaneers vs. Bears, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.73 vs Polymarket $0.72, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Vikings (Bills vs. Vikings, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.38, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- James Madison (James Madison vs. Southern Miss, Thu, Nov 5, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.85 vs Polymarket $0.84, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.10 vs Polymarket $0.30, Polymarket $0.20 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.56, Polymarket $0.08 higher
- Ron DeSantis for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.18 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.42, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Joe Burrow for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.16, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.17, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Oklahoma City Thunder for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.24, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 6219 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1997 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1782 times (29%), 2440 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2071, Polymarket 0.2071 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1037 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2131 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 398 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 36%
- EPL: 62 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 65 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 56 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LIGUE1: 46 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 17%
- ATP: 533 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 23%
- WTA: 610 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 68 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 113 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 120 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 146 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 237 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 187 games, Kalshi closer 24%, Polymarket closer 18%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.08 | $0.10 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.59 | $0.56 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.13 | $0.20 | −$0.07 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.05 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.45 | $0.42 | +$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.55 | $0.52 | +$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.73 | $0.74 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.26 | $0.24 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.21 | $0.22 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.80 | $0.78 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-04)
Views 13 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket