Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-04
Matched 521 events (Israel PM 1, Dem 2028 1, NHL 35, GOP 2028 1, ATP 11, ETH high 2026 1, ETH low 2026 1, CFB 251, UFC 23, Fed 4, BTC high 2026 1, NFL MVP 1, France 2027 1, Heisman 1, CS2 52, WTA 11, UCL 1, NBA title 1, NBA 32, MLS 15, NFL 29, Stanley Cup 1, La Liga 9, NFL futures 1, Premier League 10, Bundesliga 9, UCL games 8, LoL 1, BTC low 2026 1, Ligue 1 7), $43.6M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-04T14:00:45.393Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Josh Hokit (UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.31, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Senators (Senators vs. Sabres, Wed, Nov 4, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.47, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Johnny Walker (UFC Fight Night: Johnny Walker vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.35, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Jets (Jets vs. Chiefs, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.20, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Chargers (Texans vs. Chargers, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.33, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Patriots (Packers vs. Patriots, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Buccaneers (Buccaneers vs. Bears, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.29, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Eastern Michigan (Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan, Wed, Nov 4, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Missouri (Texas vs. Missouri, Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.44, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Kentucky (Kentucky vs. Tennessee, Sat, Nov 7, 6:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.33, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.19 higher
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.28, Polymarket $0.15 higher
- Jon Ossoff for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.22 vs Polymarket $0.28, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.25 vs Polymarket $0.19, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.06, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.10, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.10, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.31, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 6142 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1976 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1762 times (29%), 2404 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2068, Polymarket 0.2067 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1034 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 26%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2102 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 397 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 62 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 65 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 56 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LIGUE1: 46 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 17%
- ATP: 521 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 602 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 60 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 113 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 120 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 146 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 235 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 17%
- NBA: 173 games, Kalshi closer 24%, Polymarket closer 17%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.09 | $0.12 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.54 | $0.55 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.30 | $0.26 | +$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.07 | $0.04 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.49 | $0.48 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.49 | $0.48 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.72 | $0.74 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.26 | $0.25 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.20 | $0.21 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.79 | $0.79 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-03)
Views 2 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket