Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-03
Matched 550 events (CS2 69, Israel PM 1, NHL 39, Fed 4, UFC 23, GOP 2028 1, NFL MVP 1, ATP 12, BTC high 2026 1, France 2027 1, NBA 25, CFB 253, BTC low 2026 1, Heisman 1, ETH low 2026 1, NBA title 1, ETH high 2026 1, MLS 15, Dem 2028 1, Stanley Cup 1, WTA 14, UCL 1, NFL 29, UCL games 17, La Liga 9, NFL futures 1, Premier League 10, Bundesliga 9, LoL 1, Ligue 1 7), $29.2M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-03T14:03:56.034Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Sofia Kenin (Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Sofia Kenin, Wed, Nov 4, 1:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.27 vs Polymarket $0.29, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Kayla Harrison (UFC 334: Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.64 vs Polymarket $0.62, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Josh Hokit (UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.33 vs Polymarket $0.31, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- FK Bodø/Glimt (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Lille OSC, Tue, Nov 3, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.57, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Utah (BYU vs. Utah, Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.66, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Aurora Gaming (Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B, Tue, Nov 3, 9:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.55, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Ravens (Jaguars vs. Ravens, Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.20, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bengals (Bengals vs. Falcons, Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.61, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Dolphins (Lions vs. Dolphins, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.25 vs Polymarket $0.26, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Chiefs (Jets vs. Chiefs, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.80 vs Polymarket $0.81, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Counter-Strike: Privateer Gaming vs aimers (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season: +0.75% after fees. Buy aimers @ Polymarket $0.51, Privateer Gaming @ Kalshi $0.45. Fees 3.25%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.29 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.16 higher
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.17 vs Polymarket $0.32, Polymarket $0.15 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.24 vs Polymarket $0.19, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Joe Burrow for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.16, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.10, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Christine Lagarde for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.40, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $45,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.04, Kalshi $0.04 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 6054 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1943 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1734 times (29%), 2377 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2064, Polymarket 0.2063 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1032 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2063 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 397 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 62 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 65 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 56 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LIGUE1: 46 games, Kalshi closer 35%, Polymarket closer 17%
- ATP: 509 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 585 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 113 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 120 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 146 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 226 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 17%
- NBA: 173 games, Kalshi closer 24%, Polymarket closer 17%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.05 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.11 | $0.16 | −$0.05 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.54 | $0.54 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.29 | $0.26 | +$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.72 | $0.70 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.26 | $0.26 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.06 | $0.05 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.48 | $0.46 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.48 | $0.50 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.27 | $0.26 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.72 | $0.73 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-02)
Views 1 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket