Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-02
Matched 394 events (CS2 43, Israel PM 1, Fed 4, NHL 38, CFB 124, NBA 31, BTC high 2026 1, WTA 25, France 2027 1, NBA title 1, NFL MVP 1, Heisman 1, ETH low 2026 1, UFC 10, Dem 2028 1, BTC low 2026 1, MLS 15, ATP 18, ETH high 2026 1, Stanley Cup 1, GOP 2028 1, NFL futures 1, NFL 16, Premier League 11, La Liga 10, Bundesliga 9, Ligue 1 8, UCL games 17, UCL 1, LoL 1), $23.7M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-02T14:00:20.354Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Josh Hokit (UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card), Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.31, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Utah (BYU vs. Utah, Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.67, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Novak Djokovic (Rolex Paris Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot, Tue, Nov 3, 4:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.68 vs Polymarket $0.66, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Seahawks (Bears vs. Seahawks, Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Colts (Cowboys vs. Colts, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.31 vs Polymarket $0.30, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Ohio (Ohio vs. Akron, Tue, Nov 3, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.83 vs Polymarket $0.82, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Tennessee (Kentucky vs. Tennessee, Sat, Nov 7, 6:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.68, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Notre Dame (Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame, Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.66, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Hawks (Hawks vs. Pacers, Mon, Nov 2, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.64, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Wizards (Wizards vs. Magic, Mon, Nov 2, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.42, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.34, Polymarket $0.15 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.27 vs Polymarket $0.40, Polymarket $0.13 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.40, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Oklahoma City Thunder for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Jared Goff for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.03 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Dip to $1,000 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.04, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.16, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 5982 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1915 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1717 times (29%), 2350 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2066, Polymarket 0.2065 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1032 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2035 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 397 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 61 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 64 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 56 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LIGUE1: 45 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 18%
- ATP: 500 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 571 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 113 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 119 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 146 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 224 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 17%
- NBA: 158 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 18%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.05 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.10 | $0.18 | −$0.07 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.56 | $0.54 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.27 | $0.25 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.07 | $0.05 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.48 | $0.46 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.49 | $0.50 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.29 | $0.27 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.70 | $0.71 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.71 | $0.69 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.26 | $0.26 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-11-01)
Views 1 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket