Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-11-01
Matched 426 events (WTA 29, ATP 21, Israel PM 1, CS2 39, NHL 39, ETH low 2026 1, Fed 4, France 2027 1, NFL 28, BTC high 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, BTC low 2026 1, CFB 123, MLS 21, Dem 2028 1, Heisman 1, NBA 33, La Liga 13, ETH high 2026 1, NBA title 1, Stanley Cup 1, UCL 1, NFL MVP 1, NFL futures 1, UFC 10, Premier League 12, Bundesliga 11, Ligue 1 11, UCL games 17, LoL 1), $26.4M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-11-01T14:00:31.952Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Rangers (Oilers vs. Rangers, Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.55, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Athletic Club (Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol, Sun, Nov 1, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.50, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Missouri (Texas vs. Missouri, Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.38, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- LSU (Alabama vs. LSU, Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.61, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- BARCA (Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs BARCA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs, Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.41, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Buccaneers (Falcons vs. Buccaneers, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.56, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Colts (Colts vs. Jaguars, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.19, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Rams (Chargers vs. Rams, Sun, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.73 vs Polymarket $0.74, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Chiefs (Chiefs vs. Broncos, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Dolphins (Patriots vs. Dolphins, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.24 vs Polymarket $0.25, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Sofia Kenin: +1.85% after fees. Buy Leylah Fernandez @ Polymarket $0.64, Sofia Kenin @ Kalshi $0.31. Fees 3.15%.
- Chennai Open: Elsa Jacquemot vs Lilli Tagger: +1.75% after fees. Buy Elsa Jacquemot @ Kalshi $0.44, Lilli Tagger @ Polymarket $0.51. Fees 3.25%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.37, Polymarket $0.18 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.23 vs Polymarket $0.37, Polymarket $0.14 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.12, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Christine Lagarde for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.40, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.36 vs Polymarket $0.38, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Dip to $40,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin low: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 5908 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1893 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1704 times (29%), 2311 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2063, Polymarket 0.2062 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 1032 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 2014 games, Kalshi closer 41%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 397 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 60 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 12%
- LALIGA: 61 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 54 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 11%
- LIGUE1: 42 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 14%
- ATP: 488 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 566 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 113 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 107 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 140 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 53 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 219 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 154 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.05 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.50 | $0.46 | +$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.48 | $0.49 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.07 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.10 | $0.11 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.57 | $0.56 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.28 | $0.27 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.29 | $0.28 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.71 | $0.71 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.73 | $0.73 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.26 | $0.25 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-31)
Views 1 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket