Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-31
Matched 547 events (CS2 45, Israel PM 1, CFB 226, NHL 36, ATP 31, Heisman 1, NBA 26, Fed 4, Dem 2028 1, France 2027 1, NFL MVP 1, ETH low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, BTC low 2026 1, NFL 28, Bundesliga 17, MLS 30, WTA 8, UFC 11, LoL 3, BTC high 2026 1, Stanley Cup 1, UCL 1, NBA title 1, ETH high 2026 1, Premier League 20, NFL futures 1, WNBA 1, La Liga 17, Ligue 1 12, UCL games 17, WNBA title 1), $35.0M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-31T13:11:20.179Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Jacobe Smith (UFC Fight Night: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card), Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.72 vs Polymarket $0.70, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Karmine Corp (LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage, Sat, Oct 31, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Jazz (Trail Blazers vs. Jazz, Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.30 vs Polymarket $0.28, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Rams (Chargers vs. Rams, Sun, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.73 vs Polymarket $0.74, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Dolphins (Patriots vs. Dolphins, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.24 vs Polymarket $0.25, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Commanders (Eagles vs. Commanders, Sun, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.70 vs Polymarket $0.71, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Seahawks (Bears vs. Seahawks, Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Boston College (Boston College vs. Duke, Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.31 vs Polymarket $0.30, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- California (California vs. NC State, Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.27, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Colorado (Kansas State vs. Colorado, Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.59, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.43, Polymarket $0.23 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.33, Polymarket $0.14 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Malachi Toney for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.22 vs Polymarket $0.24, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.41, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.09 vs Polymarket $0.12, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Jesse Legree for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.03 vs Polymarket $0.05, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Joe Burrow for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.18 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 5685 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1833 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1646 times (29%), 2206 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2066, Polymarket 0.2065 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 929 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1987 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 394 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 52 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 57 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 48 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 10%
- LIGUE1: 41 games, Kalshi closer 39%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 470 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 548 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 25%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 102 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 107 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 131 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 52 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 212 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 147 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 18%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.08 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.09 | $0.11 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.54 | $0.56 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.30 | $0.27 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.03 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.06 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.48 | $0.46 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.48 | $0.45 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.04 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.30 | $0.28 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.70 | $0.71 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.71 | $0.72 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.26 | $0.25 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-30)
Views 6 · expands 3 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket