Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-30
Matched 533 events (Israel PM 1, Fed 4, ETH low 2026 1, NHL 35, CS2 44, Dem 2028 1, GOP 2028 1, ATP 8, Heisman 1, Stanley Cup 1, UCL 1, ETH high 2026 1, France 2027 1, NFL MVP 1, NFL 28, CFB 230, NBA 36, UFC 11, BTC low 2026 1, Bundesliga 18, MLS 30, NBA title 1, La Liga 18, Premier League 20, Ligue 1 14, UCL games 17, LoL 2, BTC high 2026 1, NFL futures 1, WNBA 1, WNBA title 1, WTA 2), $29.1M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-30T13:09:43.440Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- PRIVATE (Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs PRIVATE (BO3) - CyberClash Playoffs, Fri, Oct 30, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.44, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Wizards (Hornets vs. Wizards, Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.51, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Pacers (Pacers vs. Heat, Fri, Oct 30, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.26, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Falcons (Falcons vs. Buccaneers, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.44, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bills (Ravens vs. Bills, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Jets (Raiders vs. Jets, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.54, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Dolphins (Patriots vs. Dolphins, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.24 vs Polymarket $0.25, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Bears (Bears vs. Seahawks, Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.39, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Harvard (Harvard vs. Dartmouth, Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.80 vs Polymarket $0.79, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- UCF (Baylor vs. UCF, Fri, Oct 30, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.47, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.40, Polymarket $0.19 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.33, Polymarket $0.13 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.17 vs Polymarket $0.12, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.40, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.39 vs Polymarket $0.42, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Tampa Bay Lightning for the Stanley Cup: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.05, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Paris Saint-Germain for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.17, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 5610 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1809 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1625 times (29%), 2176 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2069, Polymarket 0.2068 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 925 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1953 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 392 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 52 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 56 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 47 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 11%
- LIGUE1: 39 games, Kalshi closer 41%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 462 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 536 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 102 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 107 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 131 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 52 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 13%
- NHL: 211 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 16%
- NBA: 137 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 18%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.09 | −$0.05 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.08 | $0.09 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.55 | $0.58 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.27 | $0.22 | +$0.05 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.04 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.27 | $0.25 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.72 | $0.72 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.04 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.48 | $0.49 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.48 | $0.46 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.71 | $0.71 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.26 | $0.27 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-29)
Views 10 · expands 15 · spotlight clicks 1 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 1 · outbound Polymarket 1 · click-through 20%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket