Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-29
Matched 558 events (ATP 12, CS2 66, Israel PM 1, Fed 4, NFL MVP 1, BTC high 2026 1, CFB 233, NBA 24, NHL 35, Heisman 1, Dem 2028 1, MLS 30, WTA 7, France 2027 1, ETH low 2026 1, Bundesliga 18, UFC 11, LoL 4, Stanley Cup 1, La Liga 18, ETH high 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, NFL 29, Ligue 1 14, UCL games 17, NBA title 1, BTC low 2026 1, WNBA 1, Premier League 20, NFL futures 1, UCL 1, WNBA title 1), $30.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-29T13:01:09.862Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Francis Marshall (UFC Fight Night: Dakota Hope vs. Francis Marshall (Featherweight, Main Card), Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.67, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Hanwha Life Esports (LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage, Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.78 vs Polymarket $0.80, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Warriors (Lakers vs. Warriors, Fri, Oct 30, 10:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.48, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Bengals (Titans vs. Bengals, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.84 vs Polymarket $0.83, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Chargers (Chargers vs. Rams, Sun, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.27 vs Polymarket $0.28, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Dolphins (Patriots vs. Dolphins, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.24 vs Polymarket $0.25, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Seahawks (Bears vs. Seahawks, Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.63 vs Polymarket $0.62, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- James Madison (Troy vs. James Madison, Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.92 vs Polymarket $0.91, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Baylor (Baylor vs. UCF, Fri, Oct 30, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- UCLA (Nevada vs. UCLA, Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.94 vs Polymarket $0.93, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.27 vs Polymarket $0.46, Polymarket $0.19 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.17 vs Polymarket $0.23, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Josh Allen for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.31 vs Polymarket $0.35, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.18 vs Polymarket $0.14, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Brock Purdy for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.19, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Trevor Lawrence for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Jesse Legree for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.03 vs Polymarket $0.06, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.16, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 5526 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1782 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1604 times (29%), 2140 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.207, Polymarket 0.207 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 922 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 357 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1907 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 390 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 52 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 56 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 47 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 11%
- LIGUE1: 39 games, Kalshi closer 41%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 450 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 529 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 102 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 106 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 131 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 51 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 14%
- NHL: 202 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 17%
- NBA: 134 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.08 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps decrease | $0.08 | $0.07 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in April? | No change | $0.56 | $0.57 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 25 bps increase | $0.27 | $0.29 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in April? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.04 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.04 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.04 | $0.04 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.45 | $0.44 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.51 | $0.49 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.02 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.20 | $0.20 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.80 | $0.78 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.68 | $0.67 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.31 | $0.31 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-28)
Views 5 · expands 3 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket