Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-28
Matched 569 events (CS2 46, Israel PM 1, Fed 4, NFL MVP 1, Heisman 1, France 2027 1, CFB 235, NHL 36, ETH high 2026 1, Dem 2028 1, BTC low 2026 1, NBA title 1, ETH low 2026 1, NBA 32, WNBA 1, Bundesliga 18, MLS 44, Stanley Cup 1, GOP 2028 1, NFL 29, La Liga 18, Ligue 1 14, UFC 11, UCL games 17, NFL futures 1, WNBA title 1, Premier League 20, ATP 12, WTA 9, LoL 6, UCL 1, BTC high 2026 1, World Series 1, MLB 1), $56.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-28T13:07:26.023Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Atlanta Dream (Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream, Thu, Oct 29, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.64, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Inter Miami CF (Inter Miami CF vs. FC Cincinnati, Wed, Oct 28, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.67, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- fnatic (Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BIG (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs, Wed, Oct 28, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.43 vs Polymarket $0.45, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Hornets (Hornets vs. Pistons, Wed, Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.31 vs Polymarket $0.29, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Oregon (Northwestern vs. Oregon, Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Eternal Fire (Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs, Wed, Oct 28, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.79 vs Polymarket $0.80, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- HOTU (Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group B, Wed, Oct 28, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.48, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Bills (Ravens vs. Bills, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Browns (Browns vs. Steelers, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.36, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Colts (Colts vs. Jaguars, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.21, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.26 vs Polymarket $0.48, Polymarket $0.22 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.32, Polymarket $0.16 higher
- Josh Allen for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.31 vs Polymarket $0.35, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Jesse Legree for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.03 vs Polymarket $0.06, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.43, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- CJ Carr for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Trevor Lawrence for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 5449 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1757 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1589 times (29%), 2103 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2061, Polymarket 0.206 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 920 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 356 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1879 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 388 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 52 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 56 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 47 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 11%
- LIGUE1: 39 games, Kalshi closer 41%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 443 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 521 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 102 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 106 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 117 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 51 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 14%
- NHL: 199 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 17%
- NBA: 122 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.02 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps decrease | $0.05 | $0.05 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in March? | No change | $0.35 | $0.44 | −$0.09 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 25 bps increase | $0.54 | $0.47 | +$0.08 |
| Fed Decision in March? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.06 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.64 | $0.64 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.31 | $0.34 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.23 | $0.20 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.74 | $0.76 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.04 | $0.02 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.95 | $0.95 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.06 | $0.05 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-27)
Views 2 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket