Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-27
Matched 578 events (CS2 57, Israel PM 1, NHL 35, UFC 10, France 2027 1, LoL 7, WNBA title 1, Heisman 1, NFL MVP 1, NBA 29, BTC high 2026 1, Dem 2028 1, ETH high 2026 1, Fed 3, CFB 236, La Liga 18, Bundesliga 18, MLS 44, UCL games 17, NBA title 1, Stanley Cup 1, GOP 2028 1, ETH low 2026 1, Ligue 1 14, NFL futures 1, Premier League 20, WTA 14, UCL 1, BTC low 2026 1, World Series 1, NFL 29, WNBA 1, ATP 9, MLB 1), $40.3M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-27T13:00:51.792Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Invictus Gaming (LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage, Wed, Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.65, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- GamerLegion (Counter-Strike: Envy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group B, Tue, Oct 27, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.35 vs Polymarket $0.38, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Team Nemesis (Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs, Tue, Oct 27, 9:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.22 vs Polymarket $0.25, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Paris Saint-Germain FC (Villarreal CF vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC, Tue, Nov 3, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.60, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Hanwha Life Esports (LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage, Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.78 vs Polymarket $0.80, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Nets (Nets vs. Celtics, Tue, Oct 27, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Top Esports (LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage, Wed, Oct 28, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.23 vs Polymarket $0.25, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Karmine Corp (LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage, Thu, Oct 29, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.78 vs Polymarket $0.80, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- TYLOO (Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TYLOO (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, Tue, Oct 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.10, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- HOTU (Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs HOTU (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group B, Tue, Oct 27, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.47, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.65, Polymarket $0.09 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.45, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Golden State Valkyries for the WNBA title: Kalshi $0.69 vs Polymarket $0.73, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Trevor Lawrence for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.02, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.19, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.20 vs Polymarket $0.17, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Josh Allen for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.32 vs Polymarket $0.35, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- David Lisnard for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.14, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 5390 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1741 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1565 times (29%), 2084 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2061, Polymarket 0.2061 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 918 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 355 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1848 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 387 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 37%
- EPL: 52 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 56 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 47 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 11%
- LIGUE1: 39 games, Kalshi closer 41%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 439 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 513 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 102 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 106 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 117 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 51 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 14%
- NHL: 191 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 17%
- NBA: 118 games, Kalshi closer 23%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.24 | $0.21 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.75 | $0.76 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.64 | $0.63 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.31 | $0.33 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.94 | $0.94 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.07 | $0.06 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-26)
Views 2 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket