Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-26
Matched 439 events (CS2 57, WNBA 2, NFL MVP 1, France 2027 1, Fed 3, NHL 34, CFB 114, NBA title 1, Dem 2028 1, GOP 2028 1, ETH low 2026 1, LoL 5, Ballon d'Or 1, Heisman 1, La Liga 19, NFL 15, Premier League 20, UCL games 17, WTA 18, Israel PM 1, Stanley Cup 1, NFL futures 1, WNBA title 1, NBA 28, Ligue 1 14, ATP 12, ETH high 2026 1, BTC low 2026 1, BTC high 2026 1, MLB 2, Bundesliga 18, MLS 44, UCL 1, World Series 1), $43.7M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-26T13:02:21.461Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Eagles (Cowboys vs. Eagles, Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.32 vs Polymarket $0.34, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Bears (Bears vs. Seahawks, Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.39, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Aliaksandra Sasnovich (Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova, Tue, Oct 27, 1:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.35 vs Polymarket $0.37, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Team Secret Whales (LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage, Mon, Oct 26, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.67, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Anyone's Legend (LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage, Mon, Oct 26, 6:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.71 vs Polymarket $0.73, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Bills (Ravens vs. Bills, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.64 vs Polymarket $0.63, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Milwaukee Brewers (Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays, Mon, Oct 26, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Cavaliers (Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers, Mon, Oct 26, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Hornets (Wizards vs. Hornets, Mon, Oct 26, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.54, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Bulls (Bulls vs. Celtics, Mon, Oct 26, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.14, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Justin Herbert for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.01 vs Polymarket $0.06, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.44, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Joe Burrow for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.11, Kalshi $0.05 higher
- Oklahoma City Thunder for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.17, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.36, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Dip to $1,500 for the 2026 Ethereum low: Kalshi $0.13 vs Polymarket $0.10, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Jordan Love for NFL MVP: Kalshi $0.03 vs Polymarket $0.06, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 5322 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1724 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1546 times (29%), 2052 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2054, Polymarket 0.2054 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 918 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 354 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1818 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 383 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 38%
- EPL: 52 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 13%
- LALIGA: 55 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 7%
- BUNDESLIGA: 47 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 11%
- LIGUE1: 39 games, Kalshi closer 41%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 434 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 498 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 102 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 105 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 13%
- MLS: 117 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 50 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 14%
- NHL: 190 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 17%
- NBA: 109 games, Kalshi closer 25%, Polymarket closer 17%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.64 | $0.69 | −$0.05 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.32 | $0.29 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.24 | $0.21 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.75 | $0.76 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.95 | $0.94 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.07 | $0.06 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket