Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-25
Matched 438 events (France 2027 1, NHL 33, CFB 113, NBA 32, ATP 9, WTA 20, Fed 3, Heisman 1, Dem 2028 1, CS2 53, ETH high 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, Israel PM 1, NFL MVP 1, NFL 27, LoL 9, NBA title 1, MLS 30, UCL games 17, WNBA title 1, Stanley Cup 1, BTC low 2026 1, Premier League 20, Ligue 1 16, BTC high 2026 1, NFL futures 1, ETH low 2026 1, Ballon d'Or 1, World Series 1, MLB 2, La Liga 18, Bundesliga 17, UCL 1, WNBA 2), $42.3M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-25T13:02:39.866Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Georgia (Florida vs. Georgia, Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.81 vs Polymarket $0.79, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Bilibili Gaming (LoL: Karmine Corp vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage, Mon, Oct 26, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.69 vs Polymarket $0.71, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Titans (Browns vs. Titans, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.46, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Jets (Dolphins vs. Jets, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.67 vs Polymarket $0.66, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cardinals (Broncos vs. Cardinals, Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.33, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Rams (Rams vs. Raiders, Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Delaware (Delaware vs. Western Kentucky, Tue, Oct 27, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.54 vs Polymarket $0.55, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Pacers (Pacers vs. Nets, Sun, Oct 25, 6:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.72 vs Polymarket $0.71, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Grizzlies (Grizzlies vs. Kings, Sun, Oct 25, 9:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.61, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Panthers (Panthers vs. Blackhawks, Sun, Oct 25, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.44, Kalshi $0.07 higher
- David Lisnard for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.14, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Reach $4,000 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.44, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.08 vs Polymarket $0.12, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.12, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Naftali Bennett for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 5225 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1693 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1520 times (29%), 2012 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2047, Polymarket 0.2046 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 918 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 354 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1788 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 379 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 38%
- EPL: 47 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 15%
- LALIGA: 51 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 45 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 11%
- LIGUE1: 33 games, Kalshi closer 36%, Polymarket closer 15%
- ATP: 424 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 21%
- WTA: 486 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 24%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 102 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 25%
- NFL: 93 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 116 games, Kalshi closer 21%, Polymarket closer 14%
- WNBA: 50 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 14%
- NHL: 186 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 18%
- NBA: 102 games, Kalshi closer 26%, Polymarket closer 18%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.64 | $0.68 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.32 | $0.29 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.24 | $0.21 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.74 | $0.77 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.04 | $0.02 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.94 | $0.95 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.06 | $0.06 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket