Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-24
Matched 559 events (ATP 16, CS2 56, France 2027 1, Fed 3, NHL 35, Israel PM 1, Heisman 1, GOP 2028 1, NBA 28, ETH high 2026 1, Dem 2028 1, Stanley Cup 1, NBA title 1, CFB 210, UFC 11, UCL 1, MLS 43, WTA 11, BTC high 2026 1, NFL 27, NFL MVP 1, ETH low 2026 1, MLB 3, Premier League 20, Ligue 1 15, UCL games 17, NFL futures 1, Ballon d'Or 1, BTC low 2026 1, WNBA 2, La Liga 18, Bundesliga 18, LoL 9, World Series 1, WNBA title 1), $50.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-24T13:03:02.420Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Petr Yan (UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card), Sat, Oct 24, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.57 vs Polymarket $0.60, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Toledo (Western Michigan vs. Toledo, Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.56, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Thiago Agustin Tirante (Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino, Sat, Oct 24, 12:45 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.61, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Ravens (Bengals vs. Ravens, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.49 vs Polymarket $0.48, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Falcons (49ers vs. Falcons, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.42 vs Polymarket $0.43, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Panthers (Buccaneers vs. Panthers, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.59, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Cardinals (Broncos vs. Cardinals, Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET): Kalshi $0.34 vs Polymarket $0.33, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Eagles (Cowboys vs. Eagles, Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.36 vs Polymarket $0.35, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Tampa Bay Rays (Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays, Mon, Oct 26, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.52 vs Polymarket $0.51, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Baylor (Baylor vs. Kansas, Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.52 vs Polymarket $0.46, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.48 vs Polymarket $0.51, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.44, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- David Lisnard for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.11 vs Polymarket $0.14, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.15 vs Polymarket $0.12, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.16, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Malachi Toney for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.03, Kalshi $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 4989 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1619 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1452 times (29%), 1918 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2037, Polymarket 0.2037 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 821 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 353 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1756 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 371 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 38%
- EPL: 43 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 16%
- LALIGA: 48 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 39 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 32 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 13%
- ATP: 405 games, Kalshi closer 28%, Polymarket closer 21%
- WTA: 463 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 91 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 93 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 103 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WNBA: 49 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 14%
- NHL: 177 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 18%
- NBA: 94 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 19%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.64 | $0.69 | −$0.05 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.31 | $0.29 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.23 | $0.21 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.72 | $0.74 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.93 | $0.95 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.08 | $0.06 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket