Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-23
Matched 557 events (France 2027 1, NHL 35, Heisman 1, Dem 2028 1, CS2 42, Fed 3, NBA 36, WNBA 2, WTA 15, UCL 1, ETH high 2026 1, BTC high 2026 1, Israel PM 1, ETH low 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, NFL 27, WNBA title 1, NFL MVP 1, MLB 4, CFB 217, UCL games 17, Stanley Cup 1, NBA title 1, BTC low 2026 1, NFL futures 1, Premier League 20, La Liga 18, Bundesliga 18, Ligue 1 14, MLS 43, ATP 10, UFC 11, LoL 8, Ballon d'Or 1, World Series 1), $36.9M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-23T13:03:08.665Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Pelicans (Pelicans vs. Jazz, Fri, Oct 23, 9:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.50, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Texas (Ole Miss vs. Texas, Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.61, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Timberwolves (Timberwolves vs. Magic, Fri, Oct 23, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.55 vs Polymarket $0.53, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Raptors (Raptors vs. Wizards, Fri, Oct 23, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.73 vs Polymarket $0.75, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Lakers (Clippers vs. Lakers, Fri, Oct 23, 10:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.78 vs Polymarket $0.76, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Atlanta Dream (Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream, Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.66 vs Polymarket $0.64, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Real Madrid CF (AEK vs. Real Madrid CF, Wed, Nov 4, 12:45 PM ET): Kalshi $0.78 vs Polymarket $0.76, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Saints (Steelers vs. Saints, Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET): Kalshi $0.38 vs Polymarket $0.39, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Texans (Giants vs. Texans, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.80 vs Polymarket $0.81, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Panthers (Buccaneers vs. Panthers, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.59, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.46, Kalshi $0.07 higher
- Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.42 vs Polymarket $0.46, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.18, Polymarket $0.04 higher
- Paris Saint-Germain for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.21 vs Polymarket $0.18, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Reach $3,500 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.13, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.24 vs Polymarket $0.21, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Malachi Toney for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.07 vs Polymarket $0.04, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 4904 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1595 times (33%) and on Polymarket 1434 times (29%), 1875 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2026, Polymarket 0.2026 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 814 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 352 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1731 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 363 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 42 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 17%
- LALIGA: 47 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 38 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 32 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 13%
- ATP: 392 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 21%
- WTA: 448 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 91 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 93 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 103 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WNBA: 49 games, Kalshi closer 33%, Polymarket closer 14%
- NHL: 176 games, Kalshi closer 16%, Polymarket closer 18%
- NBA: 82 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 20%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.64 | $0.68 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.30 | $0.30 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.26 | $0.23 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.72 | $0.73 | −$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.93 | $0.93 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.08 | $0.07 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket