Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-22
Matched 575 events (France 2027 1, CS2 64, NHL 35, Heisman 1, BTC high 2026 1, GOP 2028 1, NBA 38, Fed 3, Dem 2028 1, ETH high 2026 1, Israel PM 1, CFB 220, WNBA 2, NFL 28, MLS 43, UCL games 11, UFC 11, UCL 1, Stanley Cup 1, NBA title 1, LoL 9, NFL MVP 1, Ballon d'Or 1, Bundesliga 18, ATP 14, WNBA title 1, BTC low 2026 1, Premier League 20, World Series 1, MLB 4, La Liga 18, Ligue 1 14, WTA 6, NFL futures 1, ETH low 2026 1), $31.5M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-22T13:03:03.222Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Metizport (Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Metizport (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs, Thu, Oct 22, 12:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.46 vs Polymarket $0.49, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Sinners (Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs, Thu, Oct 22, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.55, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- 49ers (49ers vs. Falcons, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.59, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Lions (Packers vs. Lions, Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.62 vs Polymarket $0.63, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Rams (Rams vs. Raiders, Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.66 vs Polymarket $0.67, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Seahawks (Chiefs vs. Seahawks, Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.57, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Tampa Bay Rays (Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers, Fri, Oct 23, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.41, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Memphis (East Carolina vs. Memphis, Thu, Oct 22, 7:30 PM ET): Kalshi $0.78 vs Polymarket $0.79, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- UConn (UMass vs. UConn, Fri, Oct 23, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.85 vs Polymarket $0.86, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Miami (FL) (Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL), Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.93 vs Polymarket $0.92, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.46, Kalshi $0.07 higher
- Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.47, Polymarket $0.06 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.26 vs Polymarket $0.22, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.17, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.19, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Reach $4,000 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.10 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Benjamin Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.31, Polymarket $0.03 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 4828 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1568 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1413 times (29%), 1847 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2029, Polymarket 0.2029 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 811 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 352 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1691 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 362 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 42 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 17%
- LALIGA: 47 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 38 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 32 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 13%
- ATP: 380 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 441 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 51 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 91 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 92 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 103 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WNBA: 48 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 167 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 19%
- NBA: 80 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 20%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.56 | $0.60 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.40 | $0.38 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.22 | $0.19 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.76 | $0.79 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.91 | $0.91 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.10 | $0.09 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-21)
Views 1 · expands 0 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket