Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-21
Matched 567 events (CS2 38, France 2027 1, NHL 34, Israel PM 1, NBA 49, Heisman 1, CFB 221, ATP 18, UFC 11, BTC high 2026 1, ETH high 2026 1, WNBA 3, Fed 3, Dem 2028 1, GOP 2028 1, Stanley Cup 1, WNBA title 1, NBA title 1, NFL 28, Premier League 20, UCL games 11, LoL 9, NFL MVP 1, ETH low 2026 1, MLS 43, UCL 1, Bundesliga 18, BTC low 2026 1, NFL futures 1, MLB 3, La Liga 18, Ligue 1 14, WTA 9, World Series 1, Ballon d'Or 1), $33.7M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-21T13:01:38.021Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Golden State Valkyries (Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream, Thu, Oct 22, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.42 vs Polymarket $0.44, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Club Brugge KV (Club Brugge KV vs. Racing Club de Lens, Wed, Oct 21, 3:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.50 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Bears (Patriots vs. Bears, Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.61, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Texans (Giants vs. Texans, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.81 vs Polymarket $0.80, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- 49ers (49ers vs. Falcons, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.64 vs Polymarket $0.63, Kalshi $0.01 higher
- Lions (Packers vs. Lions, Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.61 vs Polymarket $0.62, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Rams (Rams vs. Raiders, Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET): Kalshi $0.66 vs Polymarket $0.67, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Seahawks (Chiefs vs. Seahawks, Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET): Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.57, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Tampa Bay Rays (Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers, Fri, Oct 23, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.40 vs Polymarket $0.41, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Sam Houston (New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston, Wed, Oct 21, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.45 vs Polymarket $0.44, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
None at snapshot time. That is normal; edges appear and close within minutes.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.54 vs Polymarket $0.46, Kalshi $0.08 higher
- Gadi Eizenkot for Israeli prime minister: Kalshi $0.47 vs Polymarket $0.52, Polymarket $0.05 higher
- Édouard Philippe for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.16 vs Polymarket $0.19, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Reach $100,000 for the 2026 Bitcoin high: Kalshi $0.26 vs Polymarket $0.23, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Reach $4,000 for the 2026 Ethereum high: Kalshi $0.10 vs Polymarket $0.07, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the 2028 Democratic nomination: Kalshi $0.14 vs Polymarket $0.16, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.18 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Vegas Golden Knights for the Stanley Cup: Kalshi $0.06 vs Polymarket $0.08, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 4743 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1540 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1389 times (29%), 1814 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2024, Polymarket 0.2023 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.8 pp.
- CFB: 810 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 352 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1652 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 362 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 42 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 17%
- LALIGA: 47 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 38 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 32 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 13%
- ATP: 366 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 22%
- WTA: 432 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 42 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 91 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 92 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 103 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WNBA: 48 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 165 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 19%
- NBA: 69 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 23%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.57 | $0.60 | −$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.39 | $0.37 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.22 | $0.20 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.76 | $0.78 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.89 | $0.88 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.12 | $0.12 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-20)
Views 1 · expands 1 · spotlight clicks 1 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 0 · outbound Polymarket 0 · click-through 0%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket