Kalshi vs Polymarket gap report, 2026-10-20
Matched 607 events (CS2 54, France 2027 1, NHL 34, Fed 3, UCL 1, Heisman 1, NBA 52, GOP 2028 1, CFB 224, NBA title 1, WNBA title 1, Stanley Cup 1, MLS 43, WTA 16, NFL MVP 1, ATP 25, UFC 11, LoL 10, ETH high 2026 1, Israel PM 1, Ballon d'Or 1, ETH low 2026 1, Dem 2028 1, WNBA 3, Ligue 1 14, Premier League 20, BTC low 2026 1, NFL futures 1, NFL 28, La Liga 18, Bundesliga 18, UCL games 17, BTC high 2026 1, World Series 1), $32.6M of 24h volume across both venues. Snapshot 2026-10-20T12:59:58.351Z.
Widest disagreements (upcoming games, two-sided books only)
- Missouri State (Missouri State vs. Delaware, Tue, Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.42 vs Polymarket $0.44, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Merab Dvalishvili (UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card), Sat, Oct 24, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.39, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- TheMongolz (Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BIG (BO3) - 1win Private Club Playoffs, Tue, Oct 20, 11:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.51 vs Polymarket $0.53, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- G2 Esports (LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage, Fri, Oct 23, 4:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.41 vs Polymarket $0.39, Kalshi $0.02 higher
- Atlanta Dream (Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream, Thu, Oct 22, 8:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.59 vs Polymarket $0.60, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Betclic Apogee Esports (Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Closed Qualifier Playoffs, Tue, Oct 20, 10:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.32 vs Polymarket $0.34, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- FOKUS (Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs, Tue, Oct 20, 11:00 AM ET): Kalshi $0.65 vs Polymarket $0.67, Polymarket $0.02 higher
- Bears (Patriots vs. Bears, Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET): Kalshi $0.60 vs Polymarket $0.61, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Vikings (Colts vs. Vikings, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.71 vs Polymarket $0.72, Polymarket $0.01 higher
- Falcons (49ers vs. Falcons, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET): Kalshi $0.37 vs Polymarket $0.36, Kalshi $0.01 higher
Cross-venue net edges after fees
- Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs ASTRAL (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs: +0.75% after fees. Buy ASTRAL @ Kalshi $0.45, Luminosity @ Polymarket $0.51. Fees 3.25%.
Futures, tournaments and nominations
- Marine Le Pen for the French presidency: Kalshi $0.53 vs Polymarket $0.47, Kalshi $0.06 higher
- Barcelona for the Champions League: Kalshi $0.28 vs Polymarket $0.24, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Marco Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination: Kalshi $0.19 vs Polymarket $0.15, Kalshi $0.04 higher
- Oklahoma City Thunder for the NBA title: Kalshi $0.23 vs Polymarket $0.20, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Atlanta Dream for the WNBA title: Kalshi $0.56 vs Polymarket $0.59, Polymarket $0.03 higher
- Golden State Valkyries for the WNBA title: Kalshi $0.44 vs Polymarket $0.41, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- Trinidad Chambliss for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.12 vs Polymarket $0.09, Kalshi $0.03 higher
- CJ Carr for the Heisman: Kalshi $0.04 vs Polymarket $0.06, Polymarket $0.02 higher
Which venue was closer to the result
On 4650 settled games, the closing price was closer on Kalshi 1509 times (32%) and on Polymarket 1363 times (29%), 1778 ties. Mean Brier: Kalshi 0.2018, Polymarket 0.2017 (lower is better). Mean gap at close 0.9 pp.
- CFB: 807 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 27%
- MLB: 352 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 14%
- CS2: 1611 games, Kalshi closer 42%, Polymarket closer 41%
- LOL: 361 games, Kalshi closer 30%, Polymarket closer 39%
- EPL: 42 games, Kalshi closer 14%, Polymarket closer 17%
- LALIGA: 47 games, Kalshi closer 34%, Polymarket closer 6%
- BUNDESLIGA: 38 games, Kalshi closer 18%, Polymarket closer 5%
- LIGUE1: 32 games, Kalshi closer 38%, Polymarket closer 13%
- ATP: 346 games, Kalshi closer 27%, Polymarket closer 21%
- WTA: 423 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 23%
- UCLGAME: 34 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 12%
- UFC: 91 games, Kalshi closer 29%, Polymarket closer 27%
- NFL: 92 games, Kalshi closer 15%, Polymarket closer 12%
- MLS: 103 games, Kalshi closer 22%, Polymarket closer 13%
- WNBA: 48 games, Kalshi closer 31%, Polymarket closer 15%
- NHL: 157 games, Kalshi closer 17%, Polymarket closer 19%
- NBA: 66 games, Kalshi closer 32%, Polymarket closer 24%
Fed meetings
| Meeting | Bucket | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps decrease | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in December? | No change | $0.22 | $0.20 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | $0.74 | $0.78 | −$0.04 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 50+ bps increase | $0.05 | $0.03 | +$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps decrease | $0.03 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change | $0.57 | $0.59 | −$0.02 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 25 bps increase | $0.39 | $0.36 | +$0.03 |
| Fed Decision in January? | 50+ bps increase | $0.02 | $0.01 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps decrease | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | $0.88 | $0.88 | $0.00 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 25 bps increase | $0.13 | $0.12 | +$0.01 |
| Fed Decision in October? | 50+ bps increase | $0.01 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Traffic yesterday (2026-10-19)
Views 3 · expands 4 · spotlight clicks 0 · embed views 0 · outbound Kalshi 2 · outbound Polymarket 3 · click-through 167%
Method: mid prices, Polymarket from the live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Gap = Kalshi − Polymarket. Not advice. Live screener: https://venuegap.com · Scoreboard: https://venuegap.com/scoreboard · Kalshi vs Polymarket: https://venuegap.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket