Fed rate decision odds: Kalshi vs Polymarket
25 bps increase leads at 57% on Kalshi and 53% on Polymarket. All 5 outcomes compared side by side, $1k traded in 24 hours, updated every 45 seconds.
Wed, Mar 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET · Fed rate decisions · $1k traded in 24h across both venues
50+ bps increase: Kalshi $0.02 vs Polymarket $0.08, −$0.06
Mid prices, in dollars on a contract that pays $1 if it happens: $0.02 is a 2% chance. The gap is Kalshi minus Polymarket.
Two separate exchanges, two accounts. Links may carry a referral code, which never changes what is shown. Disclosures.
All outcomes
| Outcome | Kalshi bid / ask | Polymarket bid / ask | Gap, + = Kalshi higher |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | $0.01 / $0.02 | $0.05 / $0.06 | −$0.04 |
| 25 bps decrease | $0.05 / $0.10 | $0.03 / $0.07 | +$0.03 |
| No change | $0.27 / $0.28 | $0.29 / $0.30 | −$0.02 |
| 25 bps increase | $0.51 / $0.63 | $0.51 / $0.55 | +$0.04 |
| 50+ bps increase | $0.01 / $0.02 | $0.07 / $0.08 | −$0.06 |
Price history, last 3 days
How this is matched
Multi-outcome markets are matched outcome by outcome by name, with an alias table for the usual spellings. Polymarket prices come from its live order book, Kalshi from its public API. Refreshed every 45 seconds.
What this is not
Read-only. Nothing here places or routes orders and nothing is advice. Fees, slippage and the time it takes to move money between venues are not in these numbers.